The history of human civilisation is fundamentally a chronicle of managing uncertainty, with ancient societies developing sophisticated financial, legal, and philosophical frameworks long before the mathematical formalisation of probability.

Mesopotamian Pragmatism and Maritime Finance The cradle of civilisation offers the earliest formalised risk management. The Code of Hammurabi (c. 1750 BCE) acted as an early form of state-mandated catastrophe insurance, offering debt forgiveness to agrarian workers facing droughts or floods. It also codified bottomry contracts, a revolutionary risk-transfer mechanism for maritime trade. Merchants borrowed capital using their ship as security; if the voyage succeeded, the loan was repaid with a high "maritime interest" rate, but if the ship was lost to sea perils, the debt was completely cancelled. By th ...