Open Source Futures
by Eddie Choo
Present news and developments in the context of strategic foresight. Singapore/Asia-based.
Podcast episodes
Season 1
Open Source Futures #10 - What Happens After the Scenarios
Scenarios - just the end of the beginning About uncertainties and learning Switching between different perspectives, and unlocking possibilities Horizon Scanning - finding things out today and imagining how things might play out 5 or even 10 years later. iPhone, 2007 Youtube, 2005 Facebook, 2004 Google, 1996 Tesla, 2008 All have had really long gestation periods - hard to tell! What's happening today that are not covered, but might have big impacts? Get plugged into Operations - find a way to work with them! Or be a Red Team that tackles what-ifs Ways to overcome resistance. Science fiction might be a way to explore possible futures. As usual, if you enjoyed this, see if you contribute at the Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee! Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/
Open Source Futures #9 - Axes
Building the scenarios economic axes market ideologies? state-society partnership (the Mazzucato stuff) Environment How much change? environmental consciousness? Look out for things with impact and uncertainty ideologies often fall into this category Create Axes look for things with impact and uncertainty Impact need not be quantitative - can be qualitative Use tweets or newspaper headlines to make the scenarios come alive Have the facilitator game going to guide people through the process Another way to construct scenarios is to use Dator's Four Futures Business As Usual Collapse Discipline Transformation As usual, if you enjoyed this, see if you contribute at the Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee! Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/
Open Source Futures #8: Technology Axes
How to incorporate technology issues as axes: About adoption and industry size Several examples of how that has happened: Browsers Aerospace industries Carmakers It's not clear whether something is abandoned or not Neural nets, deep learning Nintendo Wii interface Foldable phones Extended Reality Autonomous Vehicles Somethings things just need a really long time Nuclear fusion? Decarbonisation - a new area of technological development A portfolio approach looking at multiple technologies at the same time might be helpful - keeping tabs on them and then making further decisions when required. As usual, if you enjoyed this, see if you contribute at the Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee! Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/
Open Source Futures #7: Technology
The last in the series of the STEEP buckets. I discuss: As a shorthand, I look at technology through digital, engineering and bio/health Quantum computers for simulations and materials science AI as contributing to inequality Extended Reality as the next area of computing platform Looking at cancers as an annoyance Management of chronic conditions Future treatment of dementias The varios -omics - genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomes, proteomics... Nuclear fusion as part of the energy system DARPA - as contributing to innovations in the past - GPS, the Internet, and more recently, driverless cars, mRNA vaccines, Boston Dynamics' robots. Marianna Mazzucato - the state as the lead player in creating innovations. I would have loved to cover synthetic biology, but maybe next time. As usual, if you enjoyed this, see if you contribute at the Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee! Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/
Open Source Futures #6: Social and Demographics
Covering social and demographics - as STEEP bucket and how to use it in scenarios Demographics: Foundation of a country Age structure and economic growth Application for geopolitics: China is ageing and needs resources to care, might become difficult to grow quickly US can depend on immigration, but not always - with the Trump Admin interruption EU is tricky - immigration is now weaponised China-boosters claiming rapid growth looks like a really tall order Needs to change culture and society radically Demographics is an example of a pre-determined trend Uncertainty and Impactful Social ideologies are impact but highly uncertain Analysts must avoid judge-y language Avoid 'good' or 'bad' and avoid leaning to one side Present both sides with tradeoffs Present information and someone representative of the identity to express opinions Fanaticism seems connected with modernity As usual, if you enjoyed this, see if you contribute at the Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee! Music: Cutting Edge by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.com Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/