Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Podcast episodes

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  Why Should We Care About the South China Sea's New Flashpoint?

  Why Should We Care About the South China Sea's New Flashpoint?

  E27

  55:47

  Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan. Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal. The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing. They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct. To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.

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  Why Should We Care About Indonesia's New President?

  Why Should We Care About Indonesia's New President?

  E26

  57:36

  Ray & Jim talk to Indonesian investment banker, entrepreneur, philanthropist, musician and podcaster Gita Wirjawan, who was also the country's former trade minister from 2011-14. They discuss the significance of Indonesia as the world's third largest democracy and the largest country in Southeast Asia, and its potential to grow its economy and internationalize its profile under incoming President Prabowo Subianto. They discuss Probowo's past allegations of human rights violations, and what implications this has on his future presidency. The conversation touches on topics such as Indonesia's view of its place in the region and in ASEAN; whether it should join the BRICS grouping; its tradition of non-alignment and its perceived security threats; the ongoing relocation of its capital city; and the need for more and different sources of energy and increased foreign direct investment for the country's development. Afterwards, Jim asks Ray to respond to online rumors that Ray is secretly a U.S. government agent.

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  Why Should We Care if India is Deprioritizing its Navy?

  Why Should We Care if India is Deprioritizing its Navy?

  E25

  49:40

  Jim and Ray talk to Stanford University scholar Arzan Tarapore, who highlights India's emerging role as an anchor of U.S. security policy in the Indo-Pacific, despite the fact that India values its strategic autonomy. Arzan highlights the growing threat posed to India by China. He emphasizes India's need to prioritize investments in its Navy to counter this challenge, but also lays out concerns that these investments are starting to lag. The conversation also touches on India's relationship with Russia and the balancing act it faces in maintaining partnerships with opposing geopolitical camps. For our "There I was..." segment, Jim talks about his time among some of the world's top baseball players while he was posted in the Dominican Republic.

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  Why Should We Care if AI can Predict Future Crises?

  Why Should We Care if AI can Predict Future Crises?

  E24

  48:28

  Rhombus Power founder and CEO Anshu Roy explains to Ray and Jim how artificial intelligence (AI) has been able to predict future global crises months before they occurred--including events such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and this summer's regime-ending political instability in Bangladesh. By sifting through vast amounts of data, AI augments and complements human analysis by identifying patterns and anomalies that even the best analysts can easily miss, and then synthesizing them into projections about future events. Roy further explains how important it is to carefully and continuously curate data sources to prevent AI "hallucinations" as often occur on less sophisticated applications such as ChatGPT. Rhombus incorporates over 500 streams of publicly available and commercial data sources--from satellite service providers to media to socioeconomic data. In the hands of responsible actors AI has tremendous potential to prevent future conflict and other crises by reducing uncertainty and buying time for better decision-making. However, it can also be a terrifying tool in the hands of our adversaries.

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  Why Should Southeast Asia Care about Maritime Law?

  Why Should Southeast Asia Care about Maritime Law?

  E23

  46:03

  Jim and Ray talk to Indonesian expert Aristyo Darmawan about how international law applies to the contest over the South China Sea. Aristyo explains how a rules-based international order ensures equal footing for all countries, and unpacks the history and significance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)--particularly from an Indonesian perspective. They also discuss the challenges and limitations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations, and whether they will ever result in an actual agreement or whether they are being used by Beijing as a delaying tactic while it consolidates control. Specifically, Aristyo answers the question of whether ASEAN is able to address the actual security concerns of a nation under direct threat such as the Philippines currently faces from China. The conversation concludes with a comparison of Canberra and Jakarta as capital cities, and then Jim tells the story of how his family weathered severe flooding during his tour in Indonesia.