AI Memory Supercycle: Hardware Winners and Losers

Dell Drops After Rare Double Downgrade as AI Memory Supercycle Squeezes Hardware Margins

Morgan Stanley double-downgraded $DELL and also cut ratings on $HPQ and $HPE, arguing that an AI-driven “memory supercycle” (DRAM up 300%, NAND up 50% in 6 months) will raise component costs and pressure hardware margins into 2026. JPMorgan disagrees on Dell’s near term, pointing to strong AI-server demand and backlog, so the market’s now debating “AI growth vs. input-cost squeeze.”

Winners -

Group 1: Memory chip producers

Why they benefit: Rising DRAM/NAND prices flow straight into higher average selling prices and margins for the manufacturers. AI servers also require more high-bandwidth memory per unit, reinforcing demand.

Names:

$MU (Micron Technology)

$NVDA (Nvidia — heavy HBM demand tailwind via  ...