How to Learn from the Failures of Others. 80% of success is avoiding the Stupidities.

See the Seven Deadly Stupidities below.

Going for the Moonshot

Despite claims made by sponsors and participants, many moonshots are not moonshots at all, but are incremental improvements on existing technologies. Also, Moonshots are not called “Freeshots,” and the potential financial, reputational, and other collateral damage from a failed moonshot should be considered.

Surrendering to FOMO

It is well documented that humans are more likely to respond to fears and threats than the rewards of pleasure. Avoid situations where there is a rush to “get in” and little fear of failure. For this, you need to trigger not a reaction of exuberance, but that primitive reaction of fear and threat. Think “Why is there all this pressure to rush into this?” instead of “I better hurry to get in before I miss it.” Use the fear-threat emotion to develop and refine your FOMO radar.

Relying on Family and Friends

Most advice from family and friends is unresearched and biased. I went to that college and things were great. Where is the analysis of majors, graduation rates, alumni success, etc.? More often than not, there is none of it. So, it’s usually an older (and therefor presumed wiser) family member or friend not giving thoughtful, up-to-date, and researched advice, but rather providing an opinion. Not a good basis for a Tectonic Decision.

Getting Blinded by the Upside

Sometimes the risks of a decision are not visible or obvious. We may be in a familiar situation and overestimate our abilities and mentally minimize the risks since we have done something many times without a problem. Other times, it may be a new situation and we run into the problem of “we don’t know what we don’t know.” Be focused on, but not blinded by the upside of your decision but be sure you can identify and live with the downside.

Using Quick and Dirty Thinking

A quick solution appeals to our sense of immediate gratification. But, with few exceptions, quick and dirty thinking creates a false sense of truth and can be outright dangerous, especially when a Tectonic Decision is at hand.

Trusting the Media

Historian Daniel Boorstin had a killer concept in his book The Image: We have evolved from a society that admired people for their accomplishments (eg, explorers and scientists) to one that admires people simply because they are well-known (eg, a celebrity). He coined the term “well-knownness.” For the most part, celebrities are known for their well-knownness, not for achievements or contributions to society.

Neglecting to Measure Twice

Why are so many smart people not smart enough to realize what they don’t know? Probably because they want to be admired as the “smartest” or the “fastest” to make a judgement. Many times they are correct, but situations in which there is no second measurement are problematic since these constructs entail Iceberg Risk. As we know, 90% of an iceberg is underwater and not visible. Learn to identify situations that look great on the surface but do not hold up to that second measurement since this is where your dreams will likely hit that iceberg.

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Seven Deadly Stupidities