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Three Questions

Three Questions

by The National Interest

Government News

Season 2

The Attack That Doesn't Trigger Article 5 (w/ Fergus Hay)

A cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover last year cost the British economy £2 billion. Had a Russian drone bombed a British oil refinery at a fraction of that damage, NATO would have invoked Article 5. But because a cyber attack isn't kinetic, it doesn't count. That gap between how much damage hostile states can do and what states are prepared to call an "act of war" is now the cheapest, fastest exploit in so-called "hybrid" warfare, and the hackers conducting these attacks are often teenagers. What happens when hostile states can recruit the world's most capable hackers faster than western democracies? And why are democracies moving so slowly to recognize and deploy ethical hacking? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Fergus Hay, the CEO and Co-Founder of The Hacking Games, a platform that is reshaping the future of cyber talent by redirecting teens from cybercrime to deploying their skills in ethical hacking. Hay is also Director of the Defence and Security Forum and one of the architects of The Resilience Imperative (non-profit) focused on rebuilding the UK's national security infrastructure. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

The Case for the Saudi Nuclear Agreement

In late August, President Trump sent the US-Saudi 123 agreement for civil nuclear cooperation to Congress, beginning a 90-day legislative countdown after which the deal enters into force. The deal — signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in July — establishes a framework for American companies to sell nuclear technology to Riyadh. In the process, Saudi capital would help finance America's own nuclear buildout, including the domestic enrichment capacity needed to wean US dependence on Russian fuel. But the agreement arrives at a fraught moment. As the war with Iran drags on, America’s Gulf partners are growing increasingly uncertain about Washington’s commitment and capabilities in the region. Is nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the national interest? Should Washington condition the deal on Saudi normalization with Israel, as Trump suggests? And does the agreement make nuclear weapons proliferation more likely? In this episode, Paul Saunders makes the case that the agreement is worth having on both commercial and strategic grounds. Saunders is the president of the Center for the National Interest and an expert with more than three decades of experience in foreign policy. He previously served in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2005 as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

Europe’s Defense Reality Check (w/ Joshua Huminski)

Over four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western intelligence agencies have begun issuing public warnings about the threat of a Russian escalation against NATO before the end of the decade. With Washington seeking to reduce its conventional forces on the continent and weapon delivery timelines slipping beyond 2030, these intelligence assessments have raised urgent and uncomfortable questions: what does Europe still need from the US, and what capabilities can it now do on its own? Are Europe's militaries in worse shape than they believe, or better? And what will it actually take to deter Russia? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Joshua Huminski, Senior Vice President for National Security and Intelligence at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress (CSPC). Huminski is also the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs at CSPC, founded by former House Intelligence Committee Chairman, Rep. Mike Rogers. He is revising his first book manuscript, tentatively titled "Continental Drift: Trump and the Crises of European Defense," which is slated for publication in spring of 2027. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

The Neutrality Trap (w/ Isaac Stone Fish)

The era of corporate activism is fading. On most issues, this shift toward political neutrality is welcome, but not when the issue is China. Virtually every major global firm now carries dependencies on both Washington and Beijing, and in a genuine crisis, both governments will move to leverage those dependencies to their own advantage. Companies that imagine neutrality will preserve their independence will find there is no sideline to stand on. Which sectors are most exposed to U.S.-China competition? Is foreign ownership of U.S. companies something we can live with, or is it a problem Washington should address? And can regulation ever move fast enough to keep pace with the competition it is meant to manage? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Isaac Stone Fish, the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks. Formerly a Beijing correspondent for Newsweek, Stone Fish spent seven years living in China. He is the author of a recent piece in The National Interest, "Companies May Become Neutral on US-China Competition Again. That's a Bad Thing." Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

The Cost of Second Place in the AI Race (w/ Jamil Jaffer)

For years, American labs held an uncontested lead in artificial intelligence. That is no longer obviously true: Chinese open-weight models have closed much of the gap, and by some measures have pulled ahead. The stakes are not merely commercial. Whoever leads sets the terms for what the world runs on, who gets access to it, and what is built into the models themselves, including (in the Chinese case) political censorship and reported evidence that these systems may hand certain users deliberately weakened code. Yet American firms are adopting them anyway, sometimes for cost, sometimes because our own models are constrained from doing the work. So what would losing this race actually cost us? Why are American companies turning to Chinese models to defend their own infrastructure? And can Washington regulate a technology that outpaces the law faster than the ink can dry? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Jamil Jaffer, the founder and executive director of the National Security Institute at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. Jaffer also serves as a venture partner with Paladin Capital Group and is a contributing editor at The National Interest. He has previously served on multiple Congressional committees and as a White House counsel during the George W. Bush administration. Editor's note: This episode was recorded before OpenAI's July 21 statement on the Hugging Face security incident discussed by our guest, which attributes the intrusion to OpenAI's own models running with cyber safeguards disabled for internal evaluation. Listeners can find that statement here. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

Russia’s Pain at the Pump (w/ Sergey Vakulenko)

Since April, Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Russia's oil refineries, knocking out a substantial share of the country's refining capacity and triggering gasoline shortages from Crimea to central Russia. What was once a nuisance for Moscow has become something closer to a full-blown fuel crisis. Yet the strikes' effects are uneven: ordinary Russian motorists are feeling real pain at the pump, even as the diesel-fueled Russian military and the Kremlin's oil revenues remain largely insulated. Can Ukraine's campaign translate civilian inconvenience into genuine economic or political pressure on Moscow? How far can Russia stretch its coping mechanisms? And after a decade of underinvestment, sanctions, and now physical damage, what future awaits Russia's oil industry once the war ends? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. He has twenty-five years of experience in the oil and gas industry as an economist, manager, executive, and consultant, including Royal Dutch Shell and IHS CERA. Until February 2022, he served as head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

Turning Up the Dial on America's Nuclear Restart (w/ Ho K. Nieh)

After decades defined by survival and preservation, the U.S. nuclear industry has entered a new era of growth. Bolstered by a 2025 presidential executive order and bipartisan acts of Congress, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is undergoing its most comprehensive transformation in fifty years. The stakes are considerable: surging electricity demand from AI and industrial growth has made nuclear power essential not only to America's energy security but to its national security, even as China has brought nearly sixty reactors online in the time the United States has only built three. How does a safety regulator reinvent how it works without compromising what it protects? What will it take for America to deploy nuclear at scale and to lead the world in doing so again? And how does the NRC's role reach beyond domestic plants to shape whether U.S. allies buy American reactors or someone else's? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Ho K. Nieh, Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chairman Nieh was previously VP of Regulatory Affairs at Southern Nuclear and, prior to that, served for more than twenty years as an NRC staff member. While at the NRC, Chairman Nieh served as Director of the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, where he was responsible for reactor safety licensing and oversight programs for operating and new reactors. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

Soft Power, Hard Returns: American Investment in Egypt (w/ James Harmon & Cornelius Queen)

In 2011, Congress placed $300 million in the hands of private investors with an unusual mandate: grow Egypt's economy on behalf of the American people. Fifteen years later, the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund has invested in more than 150 companies, helped create over 75,000 jobs, and grown to an estimated value of more than $500 million. And it has managed all this in a country rocked by revolution, political instability, and currency collapse. At a moment when Americans are questioning the costs of hard power in the Middle East and the value of foreign assistance, the Fund's track record raises provocative questions about how the US projects its influence abroad. Can private-sector investment succeed where troops and traditional aid have struggled? Why should taxpayer dollars back ventures in faraway markets? And can this model of "soft power" be replicated across the developing world? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with James Harmon and Cornelius Queen, two authors of the new book A Daring Enterprise: A US-Egyptian Partnership and the Case for Soft Power. The book looks at the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund, where Harmon is chairman and Queen is a senior vice president. Harmon, a former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, previously served as chairman and CEO of the investment bank Schroder Wertheim & Co. and is chair emeritus of the World Resources Institute. Queen has worked on Capitol Hill and managed humanitarian aid programs in Lebanon. Order the book. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

What Is the National Interest?

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1996 report of the Commission on America's National Interests, a bipartisan effort to answer a deceptively simple question: what does the United States actually need to do in the world? Far from a dry policy artifact, the report was an attempt to bring discipline to a foreign policy debate in which nearly every cause was being branded "vital." Three decades later, that challenge feels strikingly familiar. The confusion of the early post–Cold War years, when Americans struggled to define their role in a transformed world, has echoes in our own moment, even if the sources of uncertainty have changed. How should America rank its priorities when it can't possibly pursue them all? What truly counts as "vital" versus merely important, and who gets to decide? In this episode, Paul Saunders breaks down the report's framework and makes the case for why this 30-year-old document still has relevance in 2026. Saunders is the president of the Center for the National Interest and an expert with more than three decades of experience in U.S.-Russia policy. He previously served in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2005 as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs. Read the report here: https://cftni.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Americas-National-Interests-1996.pdf Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

Nuclear Power’s Big Leap Forward (w/ Roger Martella)

One year ago, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at accelerating the deployment of nuclear energy in the United States. The impact has been dramatic, pulling forward the construction of small modular reactors by roughly five years and reshaping how industry, government, and allies plan for the future of power. The stakes could hardly be higher: energy security is the foundation beneath everything from economic growth to national defense, and the world's appetite for reliable, affordable electricity is only growing. How has industry responded to the executive orders, and what comes next? How do nuclear partnerships with allies like Japan fit into a broader strategy for energy security and American manufacturing? And how is the Trump administration balancing its "America First" agenda with the realities of global supply chains? In this episode, Paul Saunders speaks with Roger Martella, Chief Corporate Officer at GE Vernova. Martella previously served as General Counsel of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the George W. Bush Administration and as Principal Counsel for Complex Litigation for the Department of Justice's Natural Resources Section. Music by Sonican from Pixabay.

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