Iran then and now: revolutionary uncertainty, assassinations and war

Discussion focuses on the geopolitical implications of the US military deployment around Iran and the potential timing of a U.S. attack. Yossi recounts his role as Israel's chief intelligence analyst for Iran in the late 1970s, detailing the complexities of understanding the Iranian revolution and the challenges of predicting its outcome. He reflects on a strategic decision not to assassinate Ayatollah Khomeini, emphasizing the unpredictability of revolutionary situations and, moving to the present, the potential consequences of military actions. They also discuss the uncertainties surrounding President Trump's strategic thinking, such as it is.

Episode summary:

• What revolutionary situations look like
• Intelligence gaps with friendly regimes and why access doesn’t equal insight
• A historical assassination request
• Why removing leaders sometimes changes outcomes and sometimes doesn’t