Virginia 5th: McGuire leads Perriello 51-45 in new poll
Episode notes
A Washington Post-Schar School poll has Republican incumbent John McGuire ahead of Democrat Tom Perriello in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Uriah Kiser reads the WSET report. WSET put the margin of error at 4.5 to 4.6 points. McGuire won the seat in 2024 by 15 points. President Donald Trump carried the district by 12 points that same year.
The poll, in the field September 23-28, also has Trump at 47 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable inside the 5th. WSET quotes University of Lynchburg political scientist Dave Richards, an ABC-13 analyst, saying Republicans are struggling to motivate voters who are fed up with the economy, whether or not they blame Trump. Perriello, who held the seat from 2009 to 2011, is running on affordability. WSET says he does better in Charlottesville and the college towns, and McGuire holds the more conservative parts of a district that runs from Charlottesville down through Lynchburg.
Virginia Public Access Project analysis in the WSET piece ranks the McGuire-Perriello race second in the state for early voting, behind the 1st District matchup of incumbent Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor, Henrico County's commonwealth's attorney. Kiser's commentary on the air questions the poll, the early-voting calendar, and whether a Washington Post survey is built to depress Republican turnout. The numbers themselves are the WSET report of the Post-Schar poll. A 6-point lead inside a roughly 5-point margin of error is a lead. It is not a 15-point lead.
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Sources:
Schar School: https://schar.gmu.edu/news/2026-10/washington-post-schar-school-poll-shows-democrats-leading-bellwether-districts
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