Since April, Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Russia's oil refineries, knocking out a substantial share of the country's refining capacity and triggering gasoline shortages from Crimea to central Russia. What was once a nuisance for Moscow has become something closer to a full-blown fuel crisis. Yet the strikes' effects are uneven: ordinary Russian motorists are feeling real pain at the pump, even as the diesel-fueled Russian military and the Kremlin's oil revenues remain largely insulated. Can Ukraine's campaign translate civilian inconvenience into genuine economic or political pressure on Moscow? How far can Russia stretch its coping mechanisms? And after a decade of underinvestment, sanctions, and now physical damage, what future awaits Russia's oil industry once the war ends?

In this episode, Paul Saunders  ...