China’s strategy in the South China Sea has increasingly relied on “gray zone” operations—assertive, coercive actions just below the threshold of armed conflict. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that Beijing’s aggressive tactics may be backfiring. Rather than subduing rival claimants, China’s coercion has galvanized regional opposition, strengthened U.S. alliances, and escalated military posturing in ways that risk trapping Beijing in a costly, self-defeating cycle of confrontation. This blog post explores how China’s approach is unraveling and what this means for the future of maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific.

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