Jan 14, 2026

On Wednesday, the scorecard for the trade war arrived. It was a shutout.

The administration’s economic doctrine – predicated on the belief that tariffs would strangle Beijing and repatriate industry – has achieved the inverse. China’s export machine has successfully outmaneuvered US tariffs, posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 by deepening inroads into non-American markets. American protectionism has built a toll booth that Chinese exporters are happily paying, while US consumers cover the surcharge.

The market reaction was a grim acknowledgment that the Trump trade is a continued liability. The S&P 500 fell 1.0% and the Nasdaq retreated 1.5%.

The data is merciless. Chinese fact ...