Episode notes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets Donald Trump in Florida today, carrying a 20-point peace framework he says is 90% ready, though he told European leaders that he doesn't expect Russia to budge. The sticking points remain the hardest ones: who controls the Donbas, who manages the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and what security guarantees the West will actually enforce. Zelenskyy has signaled willingness to accept a demilitarized zone, a significant concession. Moscow, for its part, has offered nothing. Russia struck Kyiv with one of the year's longest sustained attacks the day before the talks. Ukraine hit an oil refinery deep inside Russia this morning.
Closer to home, the Caribbean is becoming an American sea. The US Coast Guard is actively pursuing a third Venezuelan oil tanker, the Bella 1, which refused to stop when interdicted last weekend and has been on the run since. Unlike the Skipper and Centuries, both now docked in Texas with their cargoes seized, this vessel made a U-turn and sailed into the Atlantic. The administration is now considering deploying a specialized Maritime Special Response Team to board it by force. Trump's "total and complete blockade" of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers has drawn condemnation from UN human rights experts, who call it a prohibited use of military force. But with 15,000 troops and 11 warships deployed in the region – the largest US naval presence in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis – the administration is betting economic strangulation will succeed where sanctions alone have not. 76 to 80% of Venezuela's oil goes to China. Beijing has condemned the seizures as violations of international law.
The year ends with markets near all-time highs and questions mounting about what supports them. Consumers are spending but not confident. Companies are acquiring but not hiring. The Fed is cutting but can't agree on why.
2026 will show which bubbles hold water.