The Grumpy Strategists

by Strategic Analysis Australia

Season 3

Australia's two "Wunderwaffen" can't both be magical: Hunter frigates and AUKUS subs

The Grumpies return to SAA's bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills. It's time to take stock of the $9 billion spent so far on 3 Hunter frigates for Australia's Navy, with $18 billion still to go. The right time to stop a bad project is now, before more years - and $18bn of scarce defence cash is wasted. The Hunters are meant to be the world's best anti-sub hunting ships - but they still rely on what many other cheaper ships have: a single sub-hunting helicopter with dipping sonar and torpedoes, and they have to move slowly to be quiet when sub hunting. The weapon system has a common and enormous weakness. Australians are meant to be believe two pieces of contradictory magical thinking at the same time: 1. these 3 (yes, 3) Hunter frigates are the answer to finding and sinking any sub on the planet and so will keep our sea lanes safe. and 2. Australia's future AUKUS subs are the oceans' 'apex predators' and can't be found by any adversary system on the planet - they can hunt surface ships at will and are invisible to anti-sub hunters (like, say the Hunter frigates).....How lucky is the Australian military to have found two true WonderWeapons? The Grumpies also look at Australia's counter drone strategy and achievements from the only real performance metric we have: hobbyist drones (and anyone else's) that want to fly into and over Australia's most important airbases can do so freely at will, unhindered by defensive measures that aren't defence personnel closing the blinds.....

S3 · E80

Aug 29, 2026

51:21

UK Count Binface's Australian Connection, AUKUS August, and Lethal Wellbeing

Michael calls in from Count Binface's campaign to beat Reform UK's Nigel Farage in the Clacton by-election. The Grumpies ponder a Binface-type manifesto for Australia - "I will cut your taxes and raise everyone else's," along with "The hand-dryer in the gents' toilet at the Great Himalayas restaurant Southport to be moved to a more sensible position". Practical politics for real people. Then Marcus unveils his path to make the AUKUS submarine program a truly national endeavour. It involves Strategic Analysis Australia being the centre of a new, mandatory, national contributions program centred on residents of the Australian Capital Territory. This leads naturally to Australia's developing contortions, somersaults & rotations around the fact that US submarines stationed in Australia will be carrying nuclear weapons, in breach of Australia's commitments to a nuclear free South Pacific under the Raratonga Treaty. The episode covers the astounding new release of Australia's 2026 Defence Innovation and Science strategy just two years on from the last one. Defence Science head Prof Tanya Monro (AC) uses this to prove that innovation requires nothing new and nothing to be achieved besides a font change and a modest cover page redesign. It ends with two philosophers: the new Chief of the Defence Force, Mark Hammond and his deputy Rob Chipman, and Grand Admiral Hammond's rousing commitment to an Australian military centred on Lethal Wellbeing.

S3 · E79

Aug 11, 2026

42:57

AUKUS subs' temporary base is permanent again: Mr Conroy loses his trousers in Washington, startling Elbridge Colby

Marcus undertakes an emergency mercy flight to Washington DC to comfort and counsel Department of War deputy Elbridge Colby, stunned by the stab in the back from America's Aussie ally on American access to a sub base in Western Australia. After telling Americans and the world that US subs use of the base had always been time limited and would end in 2032, Mr Conroy undertook an intense self-criticism session. Demonstrating his flexibility, he then directly contradicted himself on instruction from his Party senior, Deputy Prime Minister Marles. But the damage was done. It turns out America is just the most recent nation to experience the dangers of trusting Australian officials on anything to do with submarines. Beyond the support session for Mr Colby, the Grumpies find time to assess the Australian Defence organisation's latest achievements in transparency, contrasting these with the fresh approach of the local Canberra Integrity Commission that names everyone involved in a corrupt multi-million dollar construction program - because that is in the public interest. Meanwhile, the Federal government is fighting to not release unclassified information about nuclear waste plans, and Defence is suppressing the name of a senior officer facing allegations of financial and other misconduct. The episode ends with an assessment of prime minister Albanese's attempt at national leadership on AI, which is mystifying in its failure to engage with almost all the key issues.

S3 · E78

Aug 1, 2026

52:35

Grumpy Strategists episode 77: Those silly Canadians. Drone wars - US joins Ukraine. & Zumwalt: The Expense Continues

It's a packed episode from the SAA bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills: Marcus gets into the world of high fashion with Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson, Michael marvels at Canada's "Three Stupids" from their recent submarine decision (although it's not clear who the stupid ones are: the Canadians who will get actual, new, submarines within a decade, or us AUKUS folk Downunder). Then the Grumpies assess the American military's first active use in war of unmanned surface attack drones and outline the effects of Ukraine's increasingly long range strategic bombing campaign against Russia, using drones and domestically designed and made cruise missiles. The episode ends with the mystery of a secret court martial of a senior Australian Navy officer, another scathing Audit report on Defence's management of taxpayer $millions, and the eerily-similar emptiness of UK Government and Australian Government "new defence money" numbers and plans.

S3 · E77

Jul 20, 2026

42:50

Accountability is king, but no one is responsible. The tragedy of Australian Defence leaders forced to waste their time & our money

In Episode 76, the Grumpy Strategists ponder revelations of $29 billion of waste in just some of Australia's big defence projects from Minister for defence industry Pat Conroy. His answer: bold reform that changes things in minor ways that look eerily like the flawed approach Defence took a decade ago. Instead of the Vice Chief of Defence being responsible for decisions, under these bold reforms, the Vice Chief of Defence will be responsible. The good news is that for all the failure and waste of the last decade, it was the fault of no individual making no bad decisions. No. It was 'the system' that forced these powerful well-paid officials to NOT make decisions and be paralysed by paperwork. Now these fine leaders will be free to do what they have always wanted to do but were stopped from doing - by the system they built, lived in and presided over. It's a courageous set of bold changes that will clearly take some time - probably beyond any current minister or official's time in office - to really bear fruit. The Grumpies celebrate Australia's massive and growing Documentation Overmatch over even powerful potential adversaries like the Chinese military, who are reduced to firing nuclear capable missiles into our neighbourhood in the absence of effective paperwork or a meeting to go to.

S3 · E76

Jul 10, 2026

52:00

Unaccountable rises: A Defence leadership Trifecta performs at Parliament, while China shifts the ground on AUKUS

Marcus and Michael each pick their three stand out takeaways from Australian Defence officials testimony about delivery and performance to the Parliament. It's hard to pick winners in a field like this, but there's some overlap in the Grumpy choices. Taxpayers and the Parliament are not amongst them, unfortunately. Looking at the performance of senior Defence officials, 'Condescending emptiness' and 'falling upward' are terms that come to mind. None of this is building public trust in our Defence organisation or its leadership. Beyond the nasty realisation that senior Australian Defence officials are no longer servants of the public or the Parliament, but simply creatures of the Government of the day, it's good to have individual officials on the public record making claims that can be compared to evidence. Past statements (even carefully crafted avoiding manoeuvres) didn't stack up well for several - including incoming Chief of Australia's military, Mark Hammond. New Secretary Quinn displayed novel contortions to the English language and made a new 'AUKUS truth' that others then embraced. Then the Grumpies helicopter away from events in the Parliament and look at UK defence trouble, and the sobering realisation that AUKUS has turned into a rationing exercise: sharing out submarine numbers that would have existed without the whole AUKUS hoopla between the three Navies. Meanwhile, while AUKUS nations plan to get beyond rationing and increase submarine numbers sometime in the 2040s, China is shifting the AUKUS goalposts: out-producing the three nations on increasingly capable nuclear submarines, and building an extensive set of complementary undersea capabilities. Expectations that AUKUS might shift the military balance in the Pacific away from China look doomed to disappointment.

S3 · E75

Jun 21, 2026

42:21

America in Asia: a very different Hegesth to 2025 & regional ordering amongst disorder

Marcus talks to SAA's man in Singapore, Graeme Dobell, about the dynamics and developments on show at the annual Defence ministers' gathering in Singapore's Shangri-La hotel. This year, its America talking up the China-US relationship as a source of stability & concert of two, while Japan rises to fill some of the void created by American unreliability, & South Korea builds sovereign power. Australia makes the lonely choice to just double down on its dependence on the USA. Marcus & Graeme explore the sartorial parallels between Pete Hegseth and the Nixon-era Alexander Haig, while remembering Australia's PM Curtin, and the imprint General Douglas MacArthur's approach to war and the region left, just as it disappears. China's defence minister was a 'no show' again - partly because speaking risks being purged by Chairman Xi and partly because China isn't bothering to tell its story anymore.

S3 · E74

Jun 15, 2026

41:08

Retreat from Singapore: Richard Marles succeeds in getting all used subs from America. The new ones are rubbish.

In history, a retreat from Singapore can have hairs all over it, but Richard Marles has turned that around, as the Grumpy Strategists unpack the events. At Singapore's Shangri-La dialogue, Mr Marles faced down an America First Pete Hegseth, meeting the Pentagon chief's fiery lethality towards allies with his own Aussie cold steel. The result is Australia's AUKUS deliverables are now 3 used US Virginia class subs sometime in the 2030s instead of the earlier stupid idea of getting a new sub as part of the deal. There's celebration in the streets here in Canberra now that our fears that we might get a new submarine of any kind sometime in the next 20 years have been laid to rest. Australia is moving towards global best practice in aged care for submarines with our Collins class fleet....now that we've cancelled their life extension program (??).....We must not let this national skill wither, but apply it instead to subs with nuclear reactors on board. Mr Marles and his colleague Pat Conroy seem to understand this intuitively in a way others don't. Marcus channels his inner Marles to show us the benefits of this 'chase for simplicity' and 'cost savings' through a standalone fleet of 3 used subs. It's a tweak to what we had previously understood was a uniquely complex and costly but deeply integrated 3 nation AUKUS program. The episode deals with Minister Marles' greatest fears. And with clown spiders, one of Michael's. It also shows the difference between an AUKUS Pillar 2 "Signature" project and the highly anticipated "Marquee" project many had expected. Hint: you can fit many signatures onto one marquee.

S3 · E73

Jun 4, 2026

50:47

Australia's Collins subs life extension scandal: 10 years of failure covered up until the Auditors came - & the UK's 1st Sea Lord takes truth serum

Marcus and Michael go through the scandalous revelations about 10 years of failed planning on extending the operational life of the only submarines Australia has - the 6 Collins class - while AUKUS subs slowly appear. Disturbingly, the most senior Defence leadership - including the Secretary and the Chief of Navy (just promoted to be the chief of the entire military) were advised numerous times of insurmountable technical and engineering issues with the planned life extension. The main motors and diesel generators took up more room and would require a major redesign of the entire submarine, and the result would be a sub that had to "snort" for longer and so be more vulnerable. The whole project collapsed under the weight of its flaws because an external Audit got the story out. But for years, the leadership failed to advise Government ministers. A report by a former US Defense official belled the cat in 2024 to ministers, but neither ministers nor the Defence senior leadership revealed the scandals to the public or the Parliament. Instead they kept spending $100s of millions on failure. The result is Australia's only submarines are now in aged care, limping along until the AUKUS cavalry turns up. Meanwhile, the leadership has had promotions all round. This is an insight into how AUKUS is being managed by our Defence leaders and ministers. The episode ends with a dose of truth from the UK's First Sea Lord that the Royal Navy's pursuit of ever bigger, ever more expensive platforms is a mistake - as the huge Dreadnought subs, the Type 26 and SSN-AUKUS projects sail on eating the UK military's future.

S3 · E72

May 26, 2026

1:09:50

Oz Budgets: the Unhappy meet the Disappointed. Big Defence numbers get small. & the cage fight in Beijing

Michael and Marcus argue furiously over the merits and messages in the Albanese Govt budget versus Opposition leader Angus Taylor's response. Only one of them is right....Then Marcus burrows deep into Parliament House to find a phone to talk numbers with the Defence Chief Finance Officer. Result: a $14 billion cash bump for Defence spending over the next 4 years turns into a $1.2 billion reduction, like magic. Michael recovers from the shock of being kicked off Air Force One on its way to Beijing to listen in as a returning Donald Trump finds two buses to throw Taiwan under in his quest for a growing market for American beans. The episode ends with a trot through global demographics and the disturbing raw numbers on naval shipbuilding out of China and America. One nation is building a big new blue water fleet. The other is holding its breath saying it wants to. Premium Economy back to the SAA bunker can't land fast enough in this unravelling world.

S3 · E71

May 18, 2026

54:13

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