2 Feb 2026

The Israeli Defence Forces launched an attack on IRGC Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon, targeting a site embedded within civilian areas. This escalation follows a series of attacks and statements from both sides, with Israel emphasising the need for national unity and preparedness for a multi-theatred war. Meanwhile, the IRGC continues to send mixed signals, threatening the US while simultaneously seeking negotiations, with potential talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Friday.

The likelihood of successful negotiations between the US, Iran, and Israel is slim due to significant differences in their positions. Iran’s potential concession on enriched uranium is complicated by conflicting official and unofficial statements, while Israel’s insistence on addressing ballistic missiles remains a major sticking point. The ...