This week’s economic data is not screaming recession—but it is absolutely flashing “stuck.”

Mortgage rates eased slightly, but housing demand did not magically come back. Buyers are still pinned down by affordability, high prices, and the lock-in effect keeping existing homeowners from selling.

The labor market is sending the same frozen signal: layoffs are still historically low, but hiring plans collapsed to the weakest July level in years. Workers may not be getting fired in mass numbers, but finding a new job is getting harder—and the job-hopper premium is shrinking.

Meanwhile, services are still expanding, but employment inside the services sector contracted while prices paid jumped again. That keeps the Fed in a messy spot: the economy is not weak enough for easy cuts, but inflation pressure is still too sticky to ignore. ...