

Probability 3: Conditional Probability — The Updated Mind
AI
Reasonable Hope (Philosophy) by Brian Rihner
S1 · E66
Jul 8, 2026
02:38
Episode notes
Healthy thinking requires updating our beliefs when new evidence appears. Using conditional probability and Bayes’ Theorem, Brian explores the importance of intellectual humility and asks whether old assumptions about ourselves, others, or God are preventing us from recognizing new grace.
Keywords
Reasonable Hope
Philosophy
Mathematics