Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

by Ray Powell & Jim Carouso

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey

Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific. In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.” The conversation covers: Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world today How a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward posture The expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon Strait Whether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarity Philippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the alliance Japan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest Islands The race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architecture Why this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-Pacific Whether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships. 👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn or X, @LisaCurtisDC; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn or X, @RyanHClaffey 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E152

Jun 5, 2026

51:00

Why Should We Care if Energy Dependence Undermines Southeast Asia’s Quest for Agency? | with Gita Wirjawan

Indonesia’s former trade minister Gita Wirjawan - Stanford visiting scholar and host of the Endgame podcast - joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Southeast Asia and why it is more than just an oil shock. With a significant share of the region’s energy flowing through this narrow chokepoint, the disruption is exposing how vulnerable Southeast Asia really is. Most countries hold only weeks to a couple of months of fuel reserves, and governments like Indonesia - already facing higher-than-expected oil prices - are being forced into difficult tradeoffs between subsidies, social programs, and fiscal stability. Gita explains why countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are particularly exposed, and why switching energy suppliers is far more complicated than it sounds. He also walks through how rising fuel costs ripple quickly into everyday life, especially in archipelagic economies where higher transport costs can drive up food prices and strain household budgets. The conversation goes beyond the immediate crisis to explore deeper structural challenges, including limited fiscal space, reliance on foreign investment, weak regulatory environments, and gaps in technical capacity. Gita argues that these factors make it harder for Southeast Asia to attract the capital needed to strengthen its energy security and long-term resilience. Looking ahead, the discussion turns to whether this crisis could become a turning point. While renewable energy is becoming cheaper and more viable, scaling it across the region will require massive investment and stronger governance. The episode closes by asking whether Southeast Asia can use this moment to assert greater agency, or whether it will remain dependent on forces beyond its control. 👉 Follow Gita Wirjawan on YouTube or on X, @GWirjawan 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E151

May 29, 2026

51:25

Why Should We Care if North Korea's "Little Rocket Man" is Firing Off Missiles Again? | with Ankit Panda

While U.S. attention has been consumed by wars in the Middle East and Europe, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expanding his nuclear arsenal, testing missiles from land and sea, and locking in a new strategic partnership with Russia. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Ankit Panda - Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co‑host of the Asia Geopolitics podcast at The Diplomat, and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces - to unpack what’s really going on in Pyongyang and why it matters far beyond the Korean Peninsula. Ankit explains why North Korea is now America’s “third nuclear adversary,” with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland and the lowest threshold for nuclear use of any nuclear‑armed state on Earth. He traces how Kim’s testing program shifted from cautious development to high‑tempo nuclear war exercises, including tactical nuclear weapons aimed squarely at U.S. and South Korean forces in the region. The conversation digs into the deepening Russia-North Korea military partnership, the implications of the new Choe Hyon‑class destroyer and submarine programs, and the stability‑instability paradox that could make conventional clashes more likely as Pyongyang’s deterrent matures. Ankit also lays out his argument for a U.S. policy shift from denuclearization to “stable coexistence,” explains why Washington already treats Kim as a nuclear peer in practice, and warns of the growing risk that South Korea could break from the Non‑Proliferation Treaty and pursue its own bomb. If you care about U.S. extended deterrence, the future of the Indo‑Pacific security order, North Korea-Russia cooperation, the South Korea nuclear debate, or the rising risk of nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia, this is a conversation you need to hear! 👉 Follow Ankit Panda on LinkedIn or on X, @nktpnd 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E150

May 22, 2026

51:26

Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance. Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel. We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea. If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close. 👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E149

May 20, 2026

50:32

Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann

What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options. Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island. Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order. In this episode, we talk to Eyck about: •⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first. •⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan. •⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch. •⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing. •⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits. If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening. 👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn or X, @eyckfreymann 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E148

May 15, 2026

51:41

Why Should We Care About the Trump–Xi Summit? | with Michael Sobolik

This week President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping - the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. But this isn't 2017 all over again. China is stronger, America's alliances are under strain, the war in Iran has scrambled the chessboard, and the stakes run straight through Taiwan, AI chips, rare earths and critical minerals, and the supply chains the world depends on. Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Caruso are joined by Michael Sobolik, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance. Michael unpacks why Trump may be arriving in Beijing with less leverage than he wanted, why the Iran war isn't the "four-dimensional chess" anti-China strategy some Washington commentators imagine, and what Xi Jinping's "Christmas wish list" could look like - from a public U.S. statement against Taiwanese independence to economic offers that sound like wins but could deepen American dependence on China and spook America’s Indo-Pacific allies. He also warns about the AI race hiding in plain sight: selling advanced chips to China, he argues, can mean "equipping your adversary with a weapon they don't know how to make themselves yet." As for Chinese electric vehicles manufactured on American soil, he calls that "TikTok on wheels" - a potential extinction-level event for U.S. and Japanese automakers and a national security nightmare. Michael flags one summit topic getting too much attention: setting AI rules, which he thinks is likely to yield very little substantial fruit. He also emphasizes another getting too little: political prisoners. Human rights, he argues, isn't just a moral add-on, it's strategic pressure on a Leninist regime that fears its own people, and one of the most overlooked sources of American leverage heading into Beijing. 👉 Follow Michael Sobolik on LinkedIn or X, @michaelsobolik 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E147

May 12, 2026

54:46

Why Should We Care if Beijing’s Propaganda is Attacking Journalists who Report Critically on China? | with Regine Cabato

What happens when you publish an investigation that an authoritarian superpower doesn't want the world to see? Journalist Regine Cabato found out. A contributor at the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) and former Washington Post correspondent in Manila, Regine published an explainer exposing how pro-China disinformation networks have taken root in Filipino social media feeds. The Chinese Embassy in Manila responded by attacking PCIJ online and putting her face on its social media posts - unleashing a torrent of harassment, sexist abuse, and smears labeling her a "CIA plant" and a tool of U.S. interests. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Regine to unpack what happened and why it matters far beyond the Philippines. She walks us through how she identified the red flags of pro-Beijing propaganda, why participation in China-sponsored journalist programs isn't automatically disqualifying but the rhetoric that follows often is, and how influence operations exploit the overlap between pro-Duterte networks and pro-China narratives without ever being overtly traceable to the Chinese state. Regine also reveals the personal toll: the midnight moment her phone lit up with the embassy's post, watching the hate campaign build in real time, and why she says the attacks are actually a sign her reporting is landing. She reflects on the solidarity she received from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Reporters Without Borders and Philippine press organizations - and why the Philippines remains one of the last places in the region where journalists can still report critically on China. The conversation ranges across transnational repression, U.S. credibility under the Trump administration, the weaponization of foreign-funding smears, and the broader chilling effect on Filipino newsrooms. Regine closes with a message for young reporters weighing whether to take on a powerful government: it's not for everyone, but any project that defends democratic discussion is worth it. If you care about press freedom, Chinese political warfare, the South China Sea, or the future of democracy in the Indo-Pacific, this is an essential listen. 👉 Follow Regine Cabato on LinkedIn or X, @RegineCabato 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E146

May 9, 2026

54:56

Why Should We Care About Nepal? | Gen Z Revolution, India-China Rivalry & the Iran War’s Impact on South Asia | with BGA's Sujeev Shakya

Nepal just experienced one of Asia’s most dramatic recent political upheavals. A former rapper and Kathmandu mayor, Balen Shah, swept to power in a landslide election, winning 182 of 275 parliamentary seats and wiping out every established political party. With half of Nepal’s 30 million people under 25, this “Gen Z Revolution” could signal a trend for young democracies worldwide. In this episode, Sujeev Shakya - Chair of the Nepal Economic Forum and senior advisor for Nepal and Bhutan at BowerGroupAsia - explains what happened, why it matters, and what comes next for this small Himalayan country sandwiched between India and China. We explore: •⁠ ⁠How a youth-led anti-corruption movement toppled the government and formed an interim administration on Discord in just five days •⁠ ⁠Why Nepal’s new PM is focused on public service delivery rather than grand promises, and whether he can actually end decades of entrenched corruption •⁠ ⁠Nepal’s remarkable economic transformation: GDP growth from $7B to $44B in 20 years, fueled by $15B in annual remittances and a booming IT export sector •⁠ ⁠How Nepal navigates its position between India and China - aiming to be an economic “bridge” rather than a geopolitical buffer •⁠ ⁠The impact of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure on Nepal’s fuel supply and its two million workers in the Gulf •⁠ ⁠Why thousands of Nepali soldiers are fighting for Russia in Ukraine - and the new government’s challenge of bringing them home •⁠ ⁠Investment opportunities in hydropower, agriculture, technology, tourism, and infrastructure Whether you follow South Asian politics, India-China competition, or youth-led political movements, Nepal’s story offers insights into how small states survive and thrive between great powers. 👉 Follow Sujeev Shakya on LinkedIn or X, @sujeevshakya 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E145

May 1, 2026

49:27

Why Should We Care About the World’s Blocked Oil Artery? | with Sal Mercogliano

Eighty to ninety percent of global commerce moves by sea - including 75% of the world’s oil and almost all liquefied natural gas (LNG). So when the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the shockwaves reach every corner of the Indo-Pacific and beyond. In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back maritime historian Dr. Sal Mercogliano - Campbell University professor, former merchant mariner, and host of the popular YouTube channel What's Going on with Shipping? - to unpack the two-month-old crisis that has bottled up 800 ships inside the Persian Gulf and pushed the U.S. Navy to seize tankers thousands of miles away in the Indian Ocean. Sal lays out what he calls a “tale of two blockades”: Iran rerouting traffic into its own territorial waters, shaking down shipping companies for multimillion-dollar transit payments on an international waterway and seizing Mediterranean Shipping Company vessels, while the United States mounts a blockade from the Northern Arabian Sea, firing inert shells at the Iranian container ship Touska and boarding stateless tankers in the Indian Ocean under U.S. Department of Justice warrants. We dig into the Venezuela vessel seizure precedent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the return of mine warfare, and why ship owners aren’t budging even with insurance on offer. Sal explains how ship-to-ship transfers off East Johor, Malaysia launder sanctioned Iranian crude, and why that anchorage could be the next target of U.S. enforcement. He also walks through the pressure building inside Iran: storage tanks filling, old supertankers towed out of retirement at Kharg Island, and the looming prospect of permanently damaging Iran’s aging low-pressure oil wells. We close on the ripple effects reaching Pakistan, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia - refineries shutting down, fertilizer supplies choked, and bunker fuel prices doubling - plus the quiet winner: Russia. Join us for a masterclass on why a regional war has become a global economic crisis and what the breakdown of freedom of the seas means for the Indo-Pacific. 👉 Follow Sal on YouTube and X, @mercoglianos 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E144

Apr 29, 2026

55:16

Why Should We Care About Kim Jong Un’s Dangerous Liaisons with Putin and Xi? | with Oriana Skylar Mastro

North Korean troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine, and the survivors are returning home to teach their comrades what they've learned. In return, Moscow is transferring military technology to Pyongyang. Beijing, worried about losing its grip, is competing for influence by easing up on decades of pressure that kept the Hermit Kingdom in check. And Washington? It's pulling forces out of the Indo-Pacific and sending them to other theaters. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Stanford's Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and leading expert on Chinese military strategy, to unpack her new Foreign Affairs article, "Kim's Dangerous Liaisons: Russia, China, and the Growing North Korea Threat." Oriana makes the case that the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous today than it has been in years. North Korea is more capable and emboldened and less restrained by its two great-power patrons, who are playing against each other for influence. A conflict on the peninsula today would inevitably pull in Russia and China, nuclear powers with combined military and industrial weight that rivals the United States. In this conversation: Why North Korea's Ukraine experience is reshaping its military doctrine What a "limited attack" on South Korea could look like, and how it could spiral Why China's restraining role over Pyongyang is breaking down How U.S. force movements to Iran are read in Beijing, Moscow, and Seoul The 1950 Dean Acheson parallel and what Washington risks repeating Why South Korea could one day hedge toward China if U.S. guarantees weaken What real deterrence in Northeast Asia would actually require A sharp, accessible podcast on great-power competition, alliance politics, Korean Peninsula security, U.S.-South Korea relations, and the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis. 👉 Follow Oriana Skylar Mastro on LinkedIn or X, @osmastro, or check out her new Indo-Pacific Policy Lab at Stanford University 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E143

Apr 24, 2026

53:49

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