After the Bell - A Precautionary Measure
A Precautionary Measure Eighteen years ago on this date, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy — an institution that held assets it couldn't sell quickly and funded them with borrowing that had to be renewed constantly, some of it overnight. Boujie opens there, carefully: the parallel isn't that a crisis is arriving. It's that financing conditions are an input, not a backdrop, and they can move faster than the assets they finance. Tuesday's session proved the point. All three major indexes fell for a second straight day, the Russell 2000 gave up eight-tenths of a percent, and the ten-year Treasury yield touched 5.041% — its highest since July 2007 — before easing. The thirty-year hit a June 2007 high. A thirty-year mortgage was quoted around 7.17%. The cause is further away than the Fed. Brent settled at $108.75 and WTI at $105.83 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following a drone attack launched from Iraqi territory. Riyadh called it a precautionary measure and has offered no damage assessment and no timeline. BMO Capital Markets puts the one-month correlation between WTI and the ten-year yield at 0.96, the tightest since 2019. Gold fell anyway, and the episode explains why an inflation scare doesn't automatically lift an asset that pays no interest. Monday partially reversed in the chip names — AMD, Coherent and Qualcomm all recovered — while the indexes fell regardless. Then the checklist: Axon and Sysco both raised capital and both fell, though a convertible bond and a share offering ask very different things of existing shareholders. Exxon and Chevron rose on Tuesday after falling on Monday, both times with crude higher. Microsoft and Oracle, which diverged on Monday, both fell. Coinbase, Robinhood and Strategy dropped as the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. The deep dive: what exactly is an interest rate increase supposed to do about a closed pipeline? A rate rise is a demand instrument, and a drone strike is not a demand problem. The answer runs through inflation expectations, a trucking operator facing the shock twice — at the pump and at the bank — and the question of whether expensive borrowing outlasts the oil that caused it. Nothing here is financial advice. Mailbag: mail@bluecollarandboujie.com Made by AI.