Episode notes
After the Bell: When the Rulebook Changes
Tuesday’s major indexes barely moved, but underneath the surface the market was anything but quiet.
Long-term Treasury yields pushed to multi-decade highs, oil fell sharply, consumer confidence weakened, and investors dialed back expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike. Carnival, Corning, Meta and CarMax moved higher while Apple, energy stocks and especially Fair Isaac moved the other way.
The Deep Dive looks at FICO’s 26.5% plunge after a Monday-night change in the mortgage credit-scoring landscape. VantageScore is already gaining real adoption, Rocket Mortgage plans to make it its preferred model on eligible loans, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are moving toward a single pricing grid.
But there is an important unresolved question: only weeks earlier, the GSEs’ separate pricing grids treated comparable VantageScore and FICO scores differently. If competition is increasing, how much of FICO’s moat came from the quality of the product — and how much came from the rulebook around it?
Also covered:
• Treasury yields and the pressure from expensive money • Falling oil and what it did to inflation fears • Consumer confidence versus actual consumer spending • Carnival, Corning, CarMax, Meta, Nvidia, AMD and energy stocks • What to watch Wednesday: PCE inflation, GDP revisions, corporate profits and Micron earnings • Boeing’s post-close Navy fighter contract announcement
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Nothing in this episode is financial advice.
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