Episode notes
Today’s Highlights
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Bitcoin has strengthened since Wednesday evening. The freshest synchronized market reading I found has BTC near $78,360, about +1.3% versus the prior daily close, after trading today between roughly $76,968 and $78,447. A separate composite feed around 7:20 AM Chicago showed approximately $77,862, while an earlier precisely timestamped rolling-24-hour dataset showed BTC up about +1.4% after recovering from a $76,222 low. The feeds differ because of venue and timestamp, but the direction is clear: BTC rebounded materially from yesterday's ~$76.2K support test and has now challenged $78K again.
The biggest fundamental correction to the prior report is even more important:
September 2 U.S. spot-BTC ETF flows finalized at +$101.1M.
Wednesday evening we had a preliminary secondary estimate suggesting roughly −$241M. That estimate was wrong. Farside's finalized primary table now shows +$101.1M, led by IBIT +$115.4M, with BITB +$4.2M, BTC +$30.4M and MSBT +$7.3M, partially offset by GBTC −$56.2M.
That changes the institutional interpretation materially. The completed sequence is now:
Chicago-market session
U.S. spot BTC ETF flow
Aug. 28
−$201.9M
Aug. 31
+$216.7M
Sep. 1
−$236.5M
Sep. 2
+$101.1M
The last four sessions remain slightly net negative, about −$120.6M, but yesterday was not a second consecutive large outflow day. Institutional demand is choppy, not collapsing.
A second significant development is macro relief. Fed-hike pricing has fallen toward roughly 59%–62%, from almost 70% during Wednesday's bond-market stress. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has eased toward 4.77%, and the dollar has weakened. That is providing BTC with a better liquidity backdrop this morning.