This report aims to identify the most important contextual developments in Ukraine and provide an anticipatory level of analysis. It includes an outlook into how the current dynamics can develop and on potential risks that could further deteriorate the situation of the affected population. The Current Context Analysis and Outlook section aims to identify probable developments, while the Risk Analysis section aims to identify plausible futures with significant negative humanitarian consequences. Sources and additional information are available in the PDF report on the ACAPS website.
Since 12 December 2022, Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’ have blocked the Lachin corridor. They state that the main reason for the blockade is to stop the mining of gold and copper in the area. The Lachin corridor connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and is crucial for the transportation of essential goods to ethnic Armenian people residing in the region. Essential medicine and food are scarce because of the blockade. It is affecting over 120,000 Armenian people, including 30,000 children, 20,000 older people, and about 9,000 people with disabilities living in Nagorno-Karabakh. Sources and additional information are available in the PDF report on the ACAPS website.
Since November 2022, Gaza has been experiencing intermittent heavy rainfall that has accumulated in Israeli-controlled dams and reservoirs near the Gaza Strip. Between 24–26 December 2022, Israeli authorities opened dam gates and levees along the perimeter fence east of Gaza, flooding the central and southern areas of the Gaza Strip with accumulated rainwater. Flooding has submerged many homes in neighbourhoods in Deir al-Balah governorate in the centre of Gaza city. These neighbourhoods include Deir al-Balah and az-Zawaida towns and al-Bureij refugee camp. Sources and additional information are available in the PDF report on the ACAPS website.
A series of complex crises, including gang violence, poverty, natural disasters, socioeconomic crises, and food insecurity, have generated migration from countries in Central America, including El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In 2021, more than 307,000 people on the move, mainly from these four countries, were apprehended in Mexico and redirected to the authorities. This report presents the key drivers of migration and highlights the risks faced while in transit. Sources and additional information are available in the PDF report on the ACAPS website.