Note sull'episodio
In this episode of The Supplier Signal, host Todd Yaquinto talks with Trey Pesci, Senior Forecast Analyst, about what it really takes to forecast demand in today's automotive supply chain. Trey's path started in global ocean exports at a freight forwarder, moved through a US-focused 3PL working closely with automotive suppliers, and led him into automotive forecasting, where his logistics background gave him a front-row seat to how supply chain disruptions ripple straight into manufacturing operations. He shares why the best problem solvers in this industry are often the people who've been sitting next to you solving similar issues for years, and why tapping into that institutional knowledge matters more as the market keeps shifting.
Trey tackles one of the biggest misconceptions about his role head-on: forecasting isn't a crystal ball exercise. It's about understanding the business as a whole, reading market trends, and translating data into a story about where the industry and the business are headed next, not a guarantee of what will happen. He walks through how the pace of change has accelerated dramatically since he started eight years ago, with semiconductor shortages, tariffs, and swinging EV regulations forcing forecasters to move from twice-a-year planning cycles to quarterly and even monthly forecasts. He also explains why historical data alone no longer works, and why closer collaboration with customers and sales teams has become essential to separate real signal from short-term noise.
The conversation digs into how Trey and his team handle thin or contradictory data, how they diagnose whether a missed forecast came down to bad data, bad assumptions, or shifting business conditions, and how swings between EV and internal combustion engine demand have kept forecasting teams on their toes. Despite the volatility, Trey shares a grounded, optimistic view of where the industry is headed, and practical advice for turning uncertain information into actionable insight rather than getting stuck waiting for certainty that may never come.