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This Week in College Viability

This Week in College Viability

by Gary Stocker

Careers Education for Kids Business News

Season 1

This Week in College Viability for September 22, 2023

My name is Gary Stocker, and we continue today on our journey to inform college students and their families and faculty and staff and many others about what is really going on inside higher education. Of course, the focus is on college finances and viability, but we also try to shine the light. on the many transparency issues or lack of transparency from college leaders for both public and private colleges. Going to start off today with an article from New York Times Magazine.Show note links:Tulane featured in New York Times Magazine article about declining male college enrollmentBy KASEY BUBNASH at Nola.com 9-12----‘There Was Definitely a Thumb on the Scale to Get Boys’Susan Dominus from the NYT----Some universities’ response to budget woes: Making faculty teach more coursesJON MARCUS APR 2021 (Hechinger Report)----U.S. News’ Rankings Not the ‘Behemoth’ Perceived 9-13 Jessica Blake----Ron Lieber NYT “The Price You Pay for College” Link to online course on how to get more merit aid.----Wartburg College to reduce tuition by 45%, boost aid for students The WCF Courier----More belt-tightening ahead for UP (Univ of Portland)The Beacon ( student site) by Riley Martinez

The College Viability Manifesto

I spend a lot of time espousing the weaknesses of colleges and justifiably so. But today I wanna share something I published about a year ago. It is my College Viability Manifesto. From my mind, the value of a college education is without any question desirable. Is it always ideal? Is it always perfect? No, but that's not the question. It is desirable. And I speak from experience as a first generation college student from a large family. I put my strong beliefs about that college education for me and for you, along with some important considerations and qualifications into what is the college viability manifesto. Listen and watch the podcast to see the 10 items and how to consider them as you choose and evaluate colleges.

This Week in College Viability (TWICV) This is silly PR season. September 11, 2023

Through all of the silly season admissions announcements, let’s remember to ask: “Who is the fiduciary - someone looking out for the best interests for students, parents, faculty, and the community?" It is definitely not college leaders and boards. Tune into our regular TWICV podcasts as we work to increase financial transparency in higher education. For students and parents, We’ll give you the perspective you need to make the most informed decisions about college you are considering. For faculty, staff, and other stakeholders, come to College Viability to get the guidance and data you need to engage in transparent conversations with your college leaders. Here are the links to today's stories. Liam Knox at IHE 9-7-23 (Dominican U etc.) Limestone University names acting new president following resignation of interim SC ‘Debt-free’ education: No more student loans in Washington U. financial aid packages STL PD 9-8-23 Western Illinois Univ Fall 2023 enrollment International, grad students buoy Eastern Illinois University enrollment Enrollment at Iowa’s public universities is on a downward trend Lyon College sees enrollment gains The Batesville Daily Guard

This Week in College Viability - Sep 6, 2023: Does enrollment pay the bills?

Here is a quick summary of one of the stories discussed in this podcast. As I read this, I realized the folks at Lakeland use a lot of big words for a university that can’t even graduate 50% of its students: AFTER 6 YEARS! Admissions Yield is down 27 points, tuition and fees down $4M The story uses words like: visionary initiative, groundbreaking partnership, transformative alliances, and high-quality higher education for our community. I would humbly suggest they start being transformative by graduating more of the students they already have. This is yet another example in the endless efforts by colleges to win via PR. While it is likely they will have some number of students complete this BS at a Blackhawk Technical Colleges, it is almost certain that Lakeland and the other participating colleges will drive anything close to materially significant new net revenue. I need to come up with a catch phrase to describe this business by PR model.Enrollment does not pay the bills, net collected tuition and fees do.Here are the links to the stories referenced in this podcast

TWICV September 1, 2023 Transparency, please. Management by PR won't work.

For the many who regularly follow my podcasts and post, you may recall one of my most recent focal points has been the role of a fiduciary. Fiduciary: look out for the bests interests of an organization. Particularly that college presidents and other leaders are not transparent with their college's finances. That fiduciary responsibility precludes them from being honest and transparent. I don’t like it, but I can’t argue with it too much.The main reason I am upping my proverbial game with more podcast content is that students, their families, faculty, staff, and communities need a fiduciary in their corner. So the College Viability app and my running commentary on new stories will continue until every stakeholder in the higher education market has equal access to information about the financial health and viability of their colleges – and the viability of majors, programs, courses, and employment stability at their college.I encourage you to share my podcasts with others in the higher education: In particular, parents, faculty, staff, and community leaders.Email me a comment, questions, concern, agreement, or disagreement to gary@collegeviability.comGet your version of the College Viability appStory links:AntiochBushman on tuition discountsOshkosh layoffsYork CollegeIndiana StateFr. Gregoire Fluet at Mount St. Mary

How was Hodges University allowed to stay open this long?

Hodges University announced their closure Friday evening, August 25th.Who is responsible for letting these colleges stay open?To the data: (From the College Viability App and IPEDS data 2014-2021)1. FTE enrollment down more than 1,000 students (-73%)2. 4 and 6-year graduation rates averaged about 10% and 15%, respectively. These are the lowest I have seen for closing colleges.3. Hodges 2021 endowment was less than $3M.4. Total assets were down almost $14M (-17%)5. In the past few years, they weren't even posting all of their IPEDS data to the National Center for Education Statistics5. Their 2022 audited financial statement showed P&L losses of amost $5M over the past two years.Is anybody home at Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges (SACSCOC) I checked their web site. The December 2022 actions included an substantive discussion of Hodges and its weaknesses - yet the agency gave something called: 'continued accreditation for Good Cause (caps included) Here is the linkWho are these accreditors serving? Crashing colleges? Innocent students and their famlies? Faculty? Staff?Here is the full College Viability blog on this story.For faculty and staff: Here is a courtesy link to compare enrollment of more than 1,300 private colleges from 2014-2021 (the last reported year)For college leaders and boards, here is a link purchase both the public and private college versions of the 2023 College Viability Apps.Here is the link to Doug Lederman's IHE story about Hodges closure.

TWICV: Admissions press releases are not a winning business strategy.

In this episode of TWICV, we look at the PR efforts of 3 colleges. We talk about spin, tranparency, and more.

New DOE college merger rules: So what?

The market pressures on both public and private colleges will continue to move toward consolidation in some format. The recently released DOE rule changes on mergers will not substantively change the direction the HE market was already headed. The DOE changes in merger criteria and processes will only expedite market forces already in place. Specifically, more closures; few consolidations (mergers).I have already noted that many financially-stressed private colleges wait too long to engage in consolidation discussions. They typically wait so long that any potential partners who look at their finances regulalry take a hard pass. I continue to argue that the die is already cast for many smaller, mostly rural private colleges.There are already 200-plus private colleges on my viability watch list using FTE enrollment, admissions yield. 4-year graduation rates, and endowment as the criteria. While it is unlikely all 200-plus will close, it is all but certain many will.Here is the link to the IHE story by Katherine Knott.Here is a promotional link to both the private and public college versions of the College Viability app. Each version retails at $1,500. Through December 31st, you can order both for $947.

A news story analysis of 3 Iowa private colleges: Will they survive?

Elizabeth Kelsey's Dubuque TelegraphHearld article: Leaders of local private colleges determined despite anticipated challenges is thorough enough reporting. Yet she falls into the PR trap that most regional reporters do. She doesn't challenge the company line from colleges she is reporting on.Here are three areas I have written about previously that appear in this article .Fallacy 1: New programs will save us. It won't happen in almost all cases. We are not looking for 'couch money'. These colleges need materially significant new, net revenue. New programs only guarantee start up costs and years of effort before a small percentage might materially contribute. Fallacy 2: We are unique. Nope. The competitors for these three colleges are engaged in very similar activities to try and grow their market share and net revenue. A college degree is a commodity. Some are certainly more valuable than others; but it is safe to argue that the fastest, least expensive route will prevail. Fallacy 3: "Let's not share any actual data with reporters. They aren't that smart." The discussion about reporters and intellect is for another day. Certainly, these stories play well locally. That is why reporters write them. However, College Viability is only one of many higher ed data entreprenuers working to improve the transparency of college finances and viability. The data in this story was predominantly based on hopeful numbers somewhere in the future. The actual data paints a much different picture than these college leaders choose to share. Here is a link to get a FREE pdf report on the financial health of Loras College, Clarke University, and U. of Dubuque

4 Financial Health & Viability Questions to ask college reps

Here is a simple list of 4 questions to ask colleges that will allow for a better assessment of their financial health and viability.1. Has your FTE enrollment increased or decreased in the past 5-10 yearsNOTE: Ask about the FTE enrollment because that is a standard measurement that creates the best comparisons2. What is your 4-year undergraduate graduation rate for the past 5-10 years?NOTE: This may be the most significant - and overlooked indicator. If a college has not graduated at least 50% of its undergraduate students in 4 years, there is reason to believe the mix of student is not academically strong AND they don't have the systems and processes in place to guide students towards graduation.3. What is your current endowment value?NOTE: Use a minimum of $50M. If a college is below that number it suggests they don't have the systems and processes in place to solicit gifts from alumns, community, student and others. A college unable to reach that $50M over decades cannot reasonably be expected to do so on short notice when a financial crisis develops.4. Has your admissions yield increased or decreased over the past 5-10 years?NOTE: Admissions yield is a popularity indicator. It shows what percentage of students a college accepted actually show up and start paying tuition. If the admissions yield is decreasing over a period of years, it strongly suggests that students are finding more acceptable options. NOTE 2: As a sidebar, the really selective colleges (Harvard, Yale, etc.) keep their admissions yields low on purpose - typically in the 5% range.

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