S2Ep95 | The Close Was A Lie. The Futures Told The Truth. Now It Is Expiry | 4th August Tuesday
The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day... by Tanmay Kurtkoti
Episode notes
The number on your screen says the Nifty closed yesterday at 24,774, up 1.6 percent. That number is a mirage. The real market closed almost 190 points lower, near 24,586, up about 0.83 percent. Yesterday was day one of the exchange's new single closing auction, and on its first day it misfired: a phantom spike in the final sixty seconds that nothing else confirmed. Episode 95 proves it with official data and then trades the truth into today's weekly expiry.
Four independent checks. One, the tape: the Nifty traded in a tight band around 24,580 the entire session, and the whole gain appeared in one vertical candle at the bell, the high of the day was the close. Two, the futures: the Nifty future for today's expiry closed at 24,586, a full 188 points below the 24,774 spot, and one day before expiry a future cannot sit that far under the index ...