Yesterday I said buy the dip at 75500 on Sensex. The dip went to 74897. That is 600 points deeper than I said. The level broke. By close Sensex was at 75193 and Nifty at 23654. If you bought 75500 you are sitting on a 300 point loss this morning. Honest grade four out of six testable calls hit. The macro reads paid. The level reads missed. But while Sensex was breaking 75500 in the afternoon the rupee was strengthening. USDINR closed at 96.19, 63 paise stronger than morning, on a day Brent went back up to 107. That should not happen. Which means the bid in the rupee is structural, not oil mechanical.

Then I opened my laptop this morning. Brent crude is at 104.07. Last night at 9 PM it was at 107.83. Eleven hours overnight and Brent has dropped another 3.5%. WTI is at 97.36, back below 100. After yesterday's bounce I thought the crack from W ...