Nathan Labenz (Host of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast) joins The Intelligence Horizon to make the case that, with or without major algorithmic breakthroughs, we already have enough evidence to conclude that AI is going to completely transform the economy and geopolitical landscape in the coming years. From there, we dig into one of the strangest features of the current moment: despite rapid capability gains and compressed timelines, experts across fields like economics and forecasting still fundamentally disagree on questions like whether recursive self-improvement will be explosive or gradual and how deeply AI will restructure the economy. Nathan walks through the competing paradigms that keep these communities talking past each other and explains why years of new data on AI capabilities and real-world economic impacts have done surprisingly l ...