27 Jan 2026

Following Trump’s 2:37 a.m. tariff threat to South Korea, the EU and India finalised a free trade agreement, creating a $27 trillion economic zone. This move, coupled with a Russia-India gas deal, bypasses US sanctions and leverage, potentially weakening the US-led trade order. While the US focuses on tariffs, China benefits from the discord, increasing semiconductor imports from South Korea and strengthening its yuan internationalisation.

The US economy is facing a decline in global influence as allies increasingly bypass the dollar for trade. This shift, accelerated by US tariffs and sanctions, could lead to a loss of the dollar’s reserve currency status by 2028-2030. While the US grapples with this transition, countries like India are capitalising on the opportunity, strengthening economic ties with Europe and China. ...