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Russia Decoded

by Center for the National Interest

News Commentary Politics

Season 1

August 17, 2026: "The Laugh of Triumph Over a Defeated Enemy"

This week’s Vesti broadcast gave viewers little to celebrate except the destruction of Russia's enemies, with the Kremlin gloating over the "liberation" of destroyed, abandoned villages in Ukraine while ignoring the harsh realities of life in Russian-held territories. Added to this unrelenting grimness was Vesti's other tale of "triumph" in the Russian Far East. Last week, Vladimir Putin became only the second Russian leader to visit the disputed Kuril Islands, a direct provocation aimed at Japan. By flaunting Russian naval strength and tightening its axis with North Korea and China, is the Kremlin now threatening to open a "second front" against the West, isolating Japan and South Korea while the U.S. remains bogged down in the Middle East? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

August 10, 2026: Blame Russia for Everything

This week, Vesti devoted its Europe report to a single accusation: that a failing European political class blames Moscow for every crisis that it has created itself, from migrants surging into Ceuta to vineyards burning in France and Germany's self-imposed energy shock. All of it, the program insists, is unfairly laid at Russia's door by leaders whose own coalitions are crumbling. But is Vesti projecting? What does it mean that the Kremlin's own account of the world runs on the same conspiratorial logic, with hidden hands, foreign plots, and adversaries credited with supreme powers? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

August 3, 2026: So Many Ways to Go Wrong

The Russia-Ukraine war is no longer contained to Ukraine, and the number of theaters now capable of pulling in one another, from Kyiv to Tehran, is growing faster than anyone's ability to manage them. Was Ukraine's recent strike on an Iranian vessel intended as a message for Donald Trump, and why did it fail to get the U.S. president's attention during Zelensky's Washington visit? Why has Vesti Nedeli had so little to say about America's war in Iran? And what should we make of a mobilization denial slipped into the final seconds of the Sunday broadcast, the same week a deputy defense minister suggested Russians who don't want to fight shouldn't be allowed to leave at all? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

July 27, 2026: Rallying Around the Flag

This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast focused not on victory but on hardship. Russian correspondents fanned out from Volgograd to Vladivostok to report on fuel shortages, ten-day blackouts in Crimea, and the sixth successful Ukrainian strike on the warehouses of Russia's largest online retailer. After four years in which most Russians have experienced the war only at a distance, the drones now arrive daily, and Vesti's decision to show it in full, grim detail looks less like candor than an attempt to make Putin's war everyone's war. Excluded from the broadcast was perhaps the week's most extraordinary moment, when Kazakh President Tokayev, seated beside Putin with cameras rolling, stated plainly that he does not understand what the point of this war is, and proposing a ceasefire. In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

July 20, 2026: Getting Down to Business

With Dmitry Kiselyov away on vacation, the latest Vesti Nedeli fell to a substitute host, Yevgeny Popov, and the resulting broadcast felt like a different show entirely. Gone were the familiar tropes, the bandits and fascists and postmodern flourishes, replaced by a stripped-down, fact-heavy recitation of the news. As Kiselyov's propaganda machine idles in neutral, Popov is letting the West's own weak spots speak for themselves, from Zelensky's unpopular government purges to Europe's faltering support for military aid to Ukraine. In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

July 13, 2026: "Time Is on Our Side"

This week, Vesti Nedeli contrasted the two warring nations: Russia endures mere discomfort, from gas lines to rationing to rising prices, while life in Ukraine becomes unsustainable, with empty Patriot batteries, draft riots in Lviv, and Russian missiles landing at will. The message to Russian viewers is unmistakable: "we are taking some blows now, but time is on our side." That bet on endurance runs through nearly every story the Kremlin broadcast this week, from Putin's take-charge performance on the fuel crisis to gleeful coverage of dissension at the NATO summit. Even the announcement of a lavish new War and Peace miniseries, timed for release in 2028, reveals how long Moscow thinks this war could last. But how real is the confidence? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

July 6, 2026: Does Putin Have a Way Out?

With Ukraine's drone campaign striking ever deeper into Russia, Western analysts have rushed to declare a turning point in the war. But is it one? This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast, pointedly titled "War for Peace," reads like a direct rebuttal to the argument that Putin has trapped himself in a geopolitical standoff with no good options left. From the Kremlin's perspective, the escalation options are everywhere: stirring trouble in Cuba, playing the Iran card, and deepening the alliance with China. Europe, meanwhile, is reacting to the threat of Russian escalation with a massive push for remilitarization. If this defense splurge comes at the expense of social spending, could it end up helping Putin, as frustrated European voters revolt against their already unpopular leaders in favor of nationalist (and, as it happens, pro-Putin) parties? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 29, 2026: Putin Takes the Wheel

This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast was especially Putin-centric. Acknowledging fuel shortages, reciting battlefield details by heart, and personally steering the response to Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, the Russian leader appears not just in command but energized by the continuing confrontation with the West. However, recent events -- from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's refining sector to upcoming Duma elections that risk an embarrassing turnout -- have placed mounting strains on the regime that no amount of stagecraft can fully hide. Is Putin genuinely in his element, or performing mastery over problems he can't actually solve? And what does it mean that the strongman is increasingly the system's only visible actor? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 15, 2026: Putin's Magic Wears Off

On Sunday, a devastating missile strike hit Kyiv’s Pechersk Lavra, one of the most sacred sites in the Orthodox world. The attack points to a Kremlin that is now burning through its own foundational myths, chiefly Russia and Ukraine's shared Orthodox heritage. Days earlier, news coverage of Russia Day celebrations highlighted a different problem for the Kremlin: the seeming erosion of the emotional connection between Vladimir Putin and the soldiers he claims to lead. As Russian state media projects confidence and momentum on the battlefield, signs of anxiety are obvious on the homefront. How long can a leader maintain structural control when even his state-orchestrated military "heroes" show little positive emotion for their mission? And what does Moscow's most recent act of escalation reveal about the Kremlin's willingness to prolong the Ukraine war? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 8, 2026: Putin Says 'Nyet' to Zelensky's Offer

At this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Vladimir Putin delivered a resounding "nyet" to Volodymyr Zelensky's open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting, even as Ukrainian drones struck mere kilometers from the conference. SPIEF 2026 was equal parts economic summit and political theater, with Putin exuding confidence before an eclectic cast of foreign guests. But why refuse to negotiate now, and what does the refusal reveal about how the Kremlin reads the battlefield, the Russian economy, and the political clock ticking in Washington? Is Putin's "nyet" a door slammed shut, or a calculated bet that time is on Russia's side? And what should we make of the faces Russian television chooses to show, to sideline, or to blur out entirely? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it.

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