This episode looks at demand forecasting in a new market. Target Canada had to estimate customer behavior without the benefit of mature Canadian sales history. The company had brand awareness, but brand awareness is not the same as repeat purchasing behavior.

For PMs, this episode explores assumptions, estimation, model risk, and how teams can confuse optimism with evidence.

Key PM Questions:

• What assumptions are driving the forecast?
• What data is missing?
• How should PMs communicate uncertainty when leaders want confident numbers?