Are perceived gaps in nuclear capabilities driving unnecessary fears of a new arms race? In this Part 2, Jay Tilden examines one of the most enduring questions in deterrence theory: How do perceptions of vulnerability influence nuclear strategy and global stability?

Drawing on history, policy, and strategic theory, Tilden explores the concept of the “missile gap,” the political and psychological forces that shape deterrence debates, and whether symmetrical nuclear capabilities can actually contribute to stability rather than instability. The discussion challenges common assumptions about nuclear competition, emphasizing that deterrence depends as much on communication, understanding, and credibility as it does on military capability.

The conversation also examines adversary motivations, the role of nuclear doctrine, a ...