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Loup TV

by Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, Andrew Murphy

Investing Tech News Technology

Season 3

Sherlocked: How AOL Paved the Way for Apple’s iMessage

Most software developers and engineers know what it means to be sherlocked — the worst of fates for an app. The term was first coined in the early 2000s when Apple implemented its Sherlock search tool in Mac OS 8. Sherlock shipped only a few months after Karelia Software made a similar third-party application for the Mac called Watson. Watson was sherlocked. This is a look at the rise and fall of AOL due to a transition to broadband, the emergence of SMS text messaging and a merger gone wrong. With its creation of AOL Instant Messenger (AIM), the company broke through the barriers of communication by reducing the cost, increasing the speed, and expanding the scope of this new, instant communication method to over 35 million users at its peak.

Season 2

Loup TV Weekly: Musk's Big Week with Twitter and Cyber Rodeo

TAKEAWAYS: • Musk's investment in Twitter was no surprise given his vocal stance on free speech and his mission-driven investment approach. Given that he's now a part of the board, expect to see changes in terms of service in the next 6 mos. • This week, there have been more shutdowns in China related to Covid, further impacting the supply chain. While this is a 2% headwind to Tesla deliveries for 2022, it doesn't appear to be having an impact on the availability of Apple products. • Tesla's Cyber Rodeo was more than a ribbon cutting for Giga Texas. The factory is a stark reminder to how big of a gap there is between traditional automakers and Tesla.

Loup TV Weekly: Apple's App Store Now Steers; Tesla's Cyber Rodeo Is About Religion

TAKEAWAYS: • Apple made good on its Fall 2021 promise to allow reader apps to steer. Eventually, most apps, including gaming, will likely allow steering which begs the question: How will steering impact app developers' conversion and profitability? • Both Tesla and GameStop announced stock splits for this week resulting in outsized spikes in their respective share prices. The reason for the notable stock moves is that both companies have a passionate investor base. • Tesla's Giga Texas ribbon cutting is scheduled for April 7. The "Cyber Rodeo" event will be more fanfare than deliveries but the intense interest around joining the event speaks to a powerful advantage that Tesla has over its competitors — it's become a religion.

Loup TV Weekly: App Take Rates and Private Valuations Drop

TAKEAWAYS: • Spotify and Google announced User Choice Billing, a new agreement to allow users to pay subscriptions through Spotify or Google Play. The first iteration should be available later this year as an initiative to build on alternative billing policies that were first applied in South Korea. • The global supply chain will likely change rapidly over the next decade, shifting away from China. Apple saw it coming in 2018 and will be aggressively investing a projected $430B in US tech infrastructure over the next five years, along with investing to a lesser extent in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. • Instacart has cut its valuation by 40%. The company is now valued at $24B, compared to DoorDash at $36B. This not only reflects the present market but indicates a new valuation paradigm. • Bitcoin initiatives are growing. Exxon and Crusoe Energy plan to convert gas through digital flare mitigation systems for BTC mining. As sanctions intensify in Russia, the country seeks diversification of currency including BTC as a potential payment for oil and gas exports.

Season 1

Loup TV 157: Tesla to Double China Production; FB Blocked in Russia; Crypto’s Use Cases Grow

Takeaways: There were reports that TSLA has plans to increase its China production from 1.1M to 2M vehicles/year. As a point of comparison, VW expected to be able to produce 1M EVs in China in 2023. Bottom line is: China is a massive market. The Russian government is blocking parts of Facebook in effort to better control information. Point it forward — TikTok has a rough road ahead in the U.S. While the use of crypto is still viewed as speculative, new use cases continue to highlight that it’s here to stay. P.S. — Donations to the Ukrainian army are being funneled through cryptocurrency.

Loup TV 135: A Level-Headed Tesla Discussion

Gene and Doug have different perspectives on how the Tesla story will play out over the next decade.

Loup TV 133: The Market; What to Make of Crypto; Apple’s Iconic Cash Flow

Takeaways: • Volatility continued in the markets in anticipation of the upcoming Fed commentary on Jan. 26. The Fed can make this easy for investors on Wednesday by removing the uncertainty around timing and slope of upcoming rate increases. All in, we believe the market forms a bottom over the next one to three months. • Crypto has been in even greater free-fall than the greater markets YTD. While volatility will undoubtedly continue, we believe crypto is here to stay. • Netherlands Regulatory Commission issued a small fine to Apple related to needling payment changes within the App Store. The 5M€ fine, which is material, is dwarfed by the strength of Apple’s free cash flow.