Patrick T. Brown is a Ph.D. climate scientist — Duke, NASA, NOAA— and now Head of Climate Analytics at Interactive Brokers, where he prices temperature and climate contracts on ForecastEx.

We come at weather markets from opposite ends: the trader scanning the books & the scientist who's helping to create them. We come to the same conclusion: the market is a best forecaster you can find.

We discuss how academic incentives quietly shape climate science, why a crowd of bettors out forecasts career meteorologists, the best temperature models, AI role in forecasting, and his honest advice for anyone wanting to trade these markets.

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