Australia’s unemployment jumps to 4.5% in September 2025; RBA rate-cut bets surge, AUD softens.

Quick take

Jobs data: Jobless rate rose to 4.5% (highest since Nov 2021); employment up 14.9k but below forecasts.

Policy shift: Markets now price sharply higher odds of an RBA cut at the next meeting.

Market reaction: AUD slipped; rate-sensitive equities outperformed in Australia while miners lagged.

Winners

Gold miners (benefit from weaker AUD and rising rate-cut expectations that tend to support gold)

$NEM (Newmont) — large Australian footprint post-Newcrest deal; gold bid on risk and policy easing hopes.

$AEM (Agnico Eagle) — levered to gold prices; historically benefits when real-rate expectations fall.

Reason: Softer labor data revives easing bets and pressures the AU ...