Trinity Talks
David Spiegelhalter: Living in an age of uncertainty
di Trinity College, Oxford
In today's world of profound uncertainty, traditional decision-making frameworks fall short. Where appropriate, we can assess and evaluate probabilities for well-defined events. But when facing "deep" uncertainty, where we cannot even imagine all the possible futures, conventional methods become impractical. This talk by eminent statistician David Spiegelhalter explores some essential qualities for navigating our uncertain age. By cultivating imagination, humility and resilience, we can better face an unpredictable future—not by eliminating uncertainty, but by developing the capacity to adapt and recover when the unexpected inevitably occurs.
Trinity Professor Peter McCulloch has carried out hundreds of operations, primarily in the field of cancer. So, he knows better than most that surgery carries the risk of complications and the response of surgeons to these events when they occur is often crucial in deciding if someone lives or dies. In this lecture, Professor McCulloch shares his research into how science can make surgery safer for all of us.