The Swing

di Pendulum Group

Commenti di notizie Politica

Stagione 1

Canada's Frozen Russian Assets

On this episode of The Swing, we dive into one of the most consequential, and least understood, aspects of the war in Ukraine: Russia’s frozen state assets. Roughly $300B USD were seized by the G7 and EU in 2022 and have been sitting in financial deep-freeze. The Belgian securities depository, Euroclear, manages 90% of these frozen assets — including Canada’s share. What happens next could decide whether this money is used to help Ukraine, or flows back into Vladimir Putin’s war chest. Joining Pendulum's Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran is Aaron Gasch Burnett, a security analyst at the European Resilience Initiative Centre based in Berlin. Aaron walks us through the geopolitics, legal battles, European financial mechanisms, and the role Canada can play through double-frozen assets. Yaroslav breaks down the Canadian political timing, the risks, and why this debate may be the most important financial front of the war.

Ukraine's Untenable Choice

How do you clear a path for peace using a blueprint for capitulation? In this episode of The Swing, Pendulum's Heather Bakken, Yaroslav Baran and Balkan Devlen (also an internationally renowned geopolitical strategist) dissect the most contentious development in the Ukraine war since the full-scale invasion began: a leaked 28-point so-called “peace plan” reportedly penned in secret by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kremlin-linked businessman Kirill Dmitriev. Noticeably absent in the drafting of the plan — anyone from sovereign Ukraine. What does “peace” actually mean in international affairs with a global order struggling to define the difference between ending a war and legitimizing invasion? Baran and Devlen break down the plan’s territorial concessions, its hollowed-out security guarantees reminiscent of the failed Budapest Memorandum, and the strategic imbalance it would impose by restricting Ukraine’s armed forces while leaving Russia’s untouched. They also explore why Vladimir Putin might be entertaining talks at all, from mounting infrastructure losses under Ukrainian drone strikes to domestic strains Russians rarely see reported. One thing they all agree on is the current approach echoes the appeasement logic of the Munich Agreement with an outcome that nobody wants.

Canada`s Final Confidence Vote on the Budget - Just How Close Was It?

Pendulum's Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran break down the narrow but decisive passage of Canada’s federal budget — a vote that hinged on the Green Party's unexpected support for the Liberals and the abstentions of some opposition MPs. Baran explains the political theatre and narrows in on parliamentary procedure to debunk speculation about the Speaker’s role with a clear walk-through of the Denison rule, which would have forced a vote against the budget had the numbers deadlocked. Zooming back out they provide a political assessment on why no party truly wanted an election: Liberals seeking stability while sitting just shy of a majority, Conservatives wrestling with internal turbulence and slipping momentum, the Bloc seeing low-risk upside, and the NDP effectively immobilized without a permanent leader. With the budget through the final confidence vote, Baran and Bakken outline what comes next: budget-implementation legislation, major defence and infrastructure spending, and a political landscape that, for now, settles into a fragile, functional calm ...until the Pendulum swings again.

Canada's 2025 Budget Primer and Bathroom Break Maneuvers

Canada's long awaited budget will be tabled on November 4th. It's the first one in 18 months and will lay out the new Carney government's agenda from a dollars and cents perspective. What are the signals it will send to the markets? How does the process work? And what are the politics at play? Yaroslav and Heather discuss the play-by-play process, estimates, ways and means vote, implementation bills, and more. Sound complicated? Hear from the guy (aka Yaroslav) who used to help whip the vote on The Hill and can nerd out in plain language to help you understand how it all works. Headline spoiler: despite all the hoopla about a Christmas election, voters will probably be spared another trip to the polls by a few too many bathroom breaks. At least for now.

Canada’s Indo-Pacific Pivot: Strategic Signals and Bilateral Motion

We’re unpacking Canada’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy: what it means, where it’s headed and why it matters now more than ever. This week Yaroslav Baran is joined by two luminaries of foreign policy and trade with a particular expertise in the Asia-Pacific region: Vina Najibulla is Vice-President, Research & Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and Jonathan Berkshire Miller is Co-Founder & Principal at Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has just completed a whirlwind tour of China, Singapore, and India—three countries chosen with clear intent. This marks the Carney government’s first major diplomatic engagement in Asia, signaling a strategic re-entry into a region that’s central to Canada’s long-term economic and geopolitical interests. So what is Canada trying to achieve? And is it working? Three key messages emerged from this tour: The Indo-Pacific remains a top priority—Canada is serious about diversifying its economic and security relationships beyond the U.S. and Europe. Diplomacy is shifting toward pragmatism, with engagement even in complex relationships like those with China and India. Economic resilience is front and center, with a renewed push to deepen commercial ties and reduce over-reliance on traditional partners. Minister Anand’s visit also laid the groundwork for Prime Minister Carney’s upcoming trip to Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, where he’ll attend the ASEAN and APEC summits. This is a long-anticipated opportunity for Canada to articulate its regional priorities and engage in high-level bilateral meetings, including potential talks with China and key ASEAN partners. One of the most notable developments is Canada’s first-ever comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Indonesia—a major milestone in our ASEAN engagement. This deal includes non-tariff access for Canadian goods. Whether it’s in ASEAN, South Asia, or the broader Indo-Pacific, collaboration with India will be key to a truly connected and resilient strategy.

A Glimpse Inside the Prime Minister's Office with Oz Jungic

After four years advising two Prime Ministers of Canada on foreign policy, Oz Jungic breaks his silence with Pendulum. Jungic is moving on to another role outside of the political sphere and sat down with host Yaroslav Baran to discuss how decisions are made at the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), how the decision to recognize Palestine came together, and the evolving NATO response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. And he drops some hints about where he's going next. Get the insider's inside scoop on The Swing.

Reconciliation and Resources: Where Indigenous Rights Meet Canada's Quest for Development

As Canada doubles down on resource development and infrastructure through its new Major Projects Office (MPO) and Bill C-5 (An Act to Enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act) the constitutional Duty to Consult Indigenous Peoples is becoming a defining opportunity for the country’s economic future. Hosts Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran explore how the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation ties directly to political tensions around major development, and why Indigenous consultation is no longer just a legal formality but a litmus test for national credibility and investment certainty. This episode breaks down the legal foundations of the Duty to Consult, its evolution through Supreme Court rulings, and the growing expectation of securing Indigenous consent and partnership. Is Ottawa’s stated vision of Indigenous equity participation backed by meaningful engagement, or simply more staging? Tune in to find out.

Canada's House Is Back In Session

The House is back! This week on The Swing, we examine Canada’s return to Parliament and the political tone-setting that will shape the months ahead. Parliamentary committees are structured groups of MPs drawn from all parties, designed to mirror the composition of the House. Yaroslav, a parliamentary procedural expert, explains how committees work and why they matter. Transport Minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigns from Cabinet to become Ottawa's special envoy to Ukraine. Beyond Canada, we look at Europe’s defense industrial strategies, where protectionism and supply chain diversification intersect. How would Canada integrate into the European defense procurement system? Is Albania going where angels fear to tread? Yes Minister. It is the first country in the world to appoint AI to a ministry. What does it have to do with Mary Shelley's Frankenstein or Goethe's The Sufferings of Young Werther? Tune in to find out.

Canada's Parliament: What To Expect When The House Returns

This episode offers sharp insights into how Ottawa is preparing for its toughest test yet. Canada's lawmakers will be returning to the House next week in what promises to be a high-stakes fall sitting of Parliament. They will be welcomed by tariff shocks, fiscal pressure and a sharpened opposition. The audio briefing dives into: Machinery of government required for new marquee agencies like the Building Canada Homes initiative and the Major Projects Office. Canada’s new top bureaucrat, Michael Sabia, and what his no-nonsense style means for a faster, leaner public service. The re-entry of Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre to Question Period. Yaroslav Baran and Heather Bakken dissect Baran's latest opinion piece, 'A Fall of Contradictions, Focus and Discipline', in the Hill Times. Mark Carney's government will table a long-awaited budget that must reconcile a paradox: the need for fiscal restraint alongside investment imperatives. The prime minister has the ultimate balancing act with deep cost-cutting across government while simultaneously rolling out tens of billions in new spending from emergency bailouts for steel, aluminum, and canola to massive long-term defence investments aimed at meeting NATO’s spending target. For anyone tracking Canada’s domestic politics, trade wars with the U.S., or the shifting global order, this is a seven-minute investment you won't regret.

Cabinet Conclave, Global Power Plays, and Canada’s Major Projects Push

This week on The Swing, Yaroslav Baran, Balkan Devlen, and host Heather Bakken unpack three pivotal developments shaping Canada’s political and economic trajectory. A Cabinet Planning Forum sets the stage for a high-stakes fall session and budget. The new Major Projects Office launches in Calgary to fast-track infrastructure and send a clear signal to Alberta’s energy sector. And China’s high-profile Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit reveals new alignments with global power blocs. How do these shifts redefine Canada’s role in the world, its economic resilience, and its political strategy at home? Tune in for an in-depth discussion.

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