Export controls on GPUs and model weights absolutely shape the AI battlefield—but only where chokepoints are real, coalitions are tight, and enforcement data is exploited as aggressively as the hardware. Overreliance on broad, performance-based rules risks pushing adversaries toward harder-to-monitor paths and nudging the entire system toward fractured techno-blocs. A smarter architecture focuses narrowly upstream, leans into AI-enabled enforcement, and treats model weights as a special, high-friction case—not a magical lever.

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