Stagione 1
Before Dr Hellyer jets off to Samoa, the Grumpy Strategists go Grand - Australian grand strategy looked at through its two enduring pillars of: 1. economic prosperity by mainlining into China's economy, and 2. a strategic pillar that relies on American security. Great stuff for the last 4 decades of 'rules based global order'ing, not so great for the competitive power-based world we're in now. We'll get back to drilling into all things Aust Defence shortly....maybe.
The Grumpy Strategists drill into the facts behind Australian Govt announcements on drones to find disappointment: celebrating $16.7m on counter drone systems while spending $11m per day on AUKUS puts things into perspective, as does the fact Australia had roughly 700 drones in 2024 while the Russians fire 800 a night at Ukraine. They try to bridge the huge gap between Aust-UK AUKUS announcements & the UK's actual capacity to build subs & deploy its military. Then Marcus surfaces from trawling through past years' Pentagon budget papers to find that US sub deliveries have slipped back on average three years since AUKUS was announced.....instead of building more, faster.
The Grumpies go over an Audit report revealing the comprehensive, systemic failures of Defence, the Navy and its contractors to maintain and operate the Navy's two biggest ships. The obvious question is how can the Navy be capable 'stewards' operating and maintaining nuclear powered subs? But there's the good news that 8 years of continuous naval shipbuilding have delivered one, mostly harmless, patrol vessel to the Navy, and our Army has test fired HIMARS. The episode ends with the Grumpies checking in with Penny Wong and PM Albanese's big but confusing speeches before his China trip. Bandwagoning begins as free-riding continues.
With the UK Eurovision entry "What the Hell Just Happpppppened??" fitting Australia's reaction to the Trump AUKUS review, Marcus and Michael discuss the two Oz views: "PANIC it's over!!!!" & 'There's nothing to see, IT'S ALL PERFECTLY NATURAL" bunch - and set out why both are wrong. Politics, security, industrial capacity & cash are all at work here. This review won't be the last, particularly with 1. Anthony Albanese asserting his sovereign right to free ride on America while dissing Donald Trump, 2. US sub production numbers falling not rising, and 3. the UK's Keir Starmer choosing this moment to make UK submarine challenges 500% harder by doubling the UK's desired production rate while also building much bigger boats. What can go wrong?
Back from teaming with Dennis Rodman to help Kim Jong Un fix his naval troubles, the Grumpies get into myth busting on defence spending & on drones. They examine 6 common Myth Takes on defence spending & capability - a common feature is they all excuse inaction. Similar manoeuvres are used by those who still insist Australia's sleepy response to drone warfare is masterful & strategic. They finish with a look at the UK's new Defence Strategic Review - oops: Strategic Defence Review. It's not just a rebadge of Australia's DSR with additional buzzwords. Of course it's not. And it's not heroically courageous on submarine ambitions either.
Taiwan's representative in Australia, Douglas Hsu, talks with a Grumpy Strategist about the World Health Assembly, now as a time to reinforce multilateral & international organisations, and paths to reverse Beijing's attempts to isolate & intimidate Taiwan. They do something unusual: look at the texts that say what the UN actually said about recognition of the PRC (no mention of Taiwan) and how Australia's text recognising the PRC in 1972 does not sign up to Beijing's 'One China' formula - instead it 'acknowledges the position of the Chinese Government that Taiwan is a province of the PRC'. Words - and memory - matter, it turns out.
Marcus and Michael set out fast moving developments in military use of drones. they're happening not just in Ukraine, but in Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Singapore and the UK (just not in Australia). Then it's a dive into the Acting US Navy head's startling view that a US airstrike into Somalia was the biggliest in history. Then the Grumpies look at the investigation into the fatal Taipan helicopter crash, the Audit Office's scathing but calm assessment of Defence's failure to implement its own industry policy. The episode ends with some of the 'so what's' from revelations that Democrat seniors and White House staff worked around Joe Biden's obvious fragilities while assuring everyone they didn't exist.
The Grumpy Strategists road test Incat's latest product, the 130m electric ship "China Zorrilla", while assessing the whiplash shifts in American engagement with the Middle East. They contrast the ambitious 'Golden Dome' homeland defence project announced by Pres Trump with its lowballed price tag and courageously aspirational delivery date of 2029 with the Pentagon's troubled ICBM renewal program, the chronically delayed & over budget $141bn Sentinel program. The bright spot isn't data on the failed US campaign against the Houthis, it's the success of Aussie companies like Incat, Gilmour Space and EOS.
Marcus beams in from the Vatican after running the numbers for Pope Bob, while Michael fights his way through the clouds of smug spilling from the re-elected Labor government and a deeply relieved, complacent Defence bureaucracy. It turns out that the defeated Liberal-National coalition parties had a campaigning gift - unfortunately, it was in making Mr Albanese's performance look good. The Grumpies discuss what new polling reveals about the growing gap between government & the population on AUKUS, and the performative politics that is Trump 2.0
Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the defence permafrost on funding and capabilities, and added a note of required urgency. But polls show a collapse in Australians seeing the US as a reliable ally. They also show reluctance to raise defence spending. Meanwhile, in DC the DOGE chainsaw has bogged in the swamp and Pentagon savings are turning into Pentagon spending, just why isn't clear....Also available as a Grumpies YouTube video podcast.