The Grumpy Strategists

di Strategic Analysis Australia

Stagione 3

America in Asia: a very different Hegesth to 2025 & regional ordering amongst disorder

Marcus talks to SAA's man in Singapore, Graeme Dobell, about the dynamics and developments on show at the annual Defence ministers' gathering in Singapore's Shangri-La hotel. This year, its America talking up the China-US relationship as a source of stability & concert of two, while Japan rises to fill some of the void created by American unreliability, & South Korea builds sovereign power. Australia makes the lonely choice to just double down on its dependence on the USA. Marcus & Graeme explore the sartorial parallels between Pete Hegseth and the Nixon-era Alexander Haig, while remembering Australia's PM Curtin, and the imprint General Douglas MacArthur's approach to war and the region left, just as it disappears. China's defence minister was a 'no show' again - partly because speaking risks being purged by Chairman Xi and partly because China isn't bothering to tell its story anymore.

S3 · E74

15 giu 2026

41:08

Retreat from Singapore: Richard Marles succeeds in getting all used subs from America. The new ones are rubbish.

In history, a retreat from Singapore can have hairs all over it, but Richard Marles has turned that around, as the Grumpy Strategists unpack the events. At Singapore's Shangri-La dialogue, Mr Marles faced down an America First Pete Hegseth, meeting the Pentagon chief's fiery lethality towards allies with his own Aussie cold steel. The result is Australia's AUKUS deliverables are now 3 used US Virginia class subs sometime in the 2030s instead of the earlier stupid idea of getting a new sub as part of the deal. There's celebration in the streets here in Canberra now that our fears that we might get a new submarine of any kind sometime in the next 20 years have been laid to rest. Australia is moving towards global best practice in aged care for submarines with our Collins class fleet....now that we've cancelled their life extension program (??).....We must not let this national skill wither, but apply it instead to subs with nuclear reactors on board. Mr Marles and his colleague Pat Conroy seem to understand this intuitively in a way others don't. Marcus channels his inner Marles to show us the benefits of this 'chase for simplicity' and 'cost savings' through a standalone fleet of 3 used subs. It's a tweak to what we had previously understood was a uniquely complex and costly but deeply integrated 3 nation AUKUS program. The episode deals with Minister Marles' greatest fears. And with clown spiders, one of Michael's. It also shows the difference between an AUKUS Pillar 2 "Signature" project and the highly anticipated "Marquee" project many had expected. Hint: you can fit many signatures onto one marquee.

S3 · E73

4 giu 2026

50:47

Australia's Collins subs life extension scandal: 10 years of failure covered up until the Auditors came - & the UK's 1st Sea Lord takes truth serum

Marcus and Michael go through the scandalous revelations about 10 years of failed planning on extending the operational life of the only submarines Australia has - the 6 Collins class - while AUKUS subs slowly appear. Disturbingly, the most senior Defence leadership - including the Secretary and the Chief of Navy (just promoted to be the chief of the entire military) were advised numerous times of insurmountable technical and engineering issues with the planned life extension. The main motors and diesel generators took up more room and would require a major redesign of the entire submarine, and the result would be a sub that had to "snort" for longer and so be more vulnerable. The whole project collapsed under the weight of its flaws because an external Audit got the story out. But for years, the leadership failed to advise Government ministers. A report by a former US Defense official belled the cat in 2024 to ministers, but neither ministers nor the Defence senior leadership revealed the scandals to the public or the Parliament. Instead they kept spending $100s of millions on failure. The result is Australia's only submarines are now in aged care, limping along until the AUKUS cavalry turns up. Meanwhile, the leadership has had promotions all round. This is an insight into how AUKUS is being managed by our Defence leaders and ministers. The episode ends with a dose of truth from the UK's First Sea Lord that the Royal Navy's pursuit of ever bigger, ever more expensive platforms is a mistake - as the huge Dreadnought subs, the Type 26 and SSN-AUKUS projects sail on eating the UK military's future.

S3 · E72

26 mag 2026

1:09:50

Oz Budgets: the Unhappy meet the Disappointed. Big Defence numbers get small. & the cage fight in Beijing

Michael and Marcus argue furiously over the merits and messages in the Albanese Govt budget versus Opposition leader Angus Taylor's response. Only one of them is right....Then Marcus burrows deep into Parliament House to find a phone to talk numbers with the Defence Chief Finance Officer. Result: a $14 billion cash bump for Defence spending over the next 4 years turns into a $1.2 billion reduction, like magic. Michael recovers from the shock of being kicked off Air Force One on its way to Beijing to listen in as a returning Donald Trump finds two buses to throw Taiwan under in his quest for a growing market for American beans. The episode ends with a trot through global demographics and the disturbing raw numbers on naval shipbuilding out of China and America. One nation is building a big new blue water fleet. The other is holding its breath saying it wants to. Premium Economy back to the SAA bunker can't land fast enough in this unravelling world.

S3 · E71

18 mag 2026

54:13

Zen and the Art of Defence investment: big numbers for everyone - Episode 70

A Zen temple helps Marcus seek balance between the contradictions in Australia's defence Strategy, while Michael struggles with a noisy kettle in the bunker. Australia's new Defence Secretary takes over the much smaller empire left by her predecessor - and brings skills to help Minister Pat Conroy produce new numbers around new 'announceables' at will. Secretary Quinn has arrived in the nick of time, right as Mr Conroy's alchemy of announceables post-strategy launch seeks to sell US Defence Prime Northrop Grumman building rocket motors in Australia by 2033 as an example of the urgent creation of sovereign Aussie sovereign industry. It's beautiful to watch Marcus apply his new mindfulness tools in a doomed but noble attempt to set out the maths behind the big new spending claims of the Australian Government in recent weeks. The episode covers the growing distortion of Australia's military towards things on the water over things in the air and land - despite Australia being a country surrounded by both water and air....and it finishes up with US sub numbers and the breath of fresh air injected into Australia's defence debate by Senator Paterson, daring to notice things like delays in big programmes, and thinking beyond the usual beat ups.

S3 · E70

1 mag 2026

57:37

The Ambassadors Series - a Grumpy Strategist meets a high energy Ukrainian Ambassador

Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko speaks with a grumpy strategist about his path from business to diplomacy, & the surreal experience of families - including his - like fighting in the Russian military during WW2 & now fighting against Russian invaders in their homeland. They cover connections between the war & our part of the world - North Korea and China's direct support to Russia & also Russia's efforts to grow its military relationship with Indonesia. The episode sets out the value of a new partnership on military and industrial cooperation between Australia and Ukraine. Ukraine needs support but is also now a source of military technical advantage.

S3 · E2

18 ago 2025

46:10

The Great Debates: a civil nuclear debate

Episode 1 of the Great Debates -on topics in Australia that need discussion but are reduced to shouting matches from inside closed bubbles. Green shirted Marcus is Mr Renewables and black suited Michael is the pro-nuclear Darth Vader of the episode. Listen to hear if a civil chat about radioactive waste, windfarms and Australia's energy mix is possible.

S3 · E1

26 lug 2024

37:03

The Grumpy Strategists cover Australia's new defence plan: a strategy of denial that the world has changed

The Grumpy Strategists respond to Australia's defence minister, Richard Marles, discussing and releasing the 'new' 2026 Defence Strategy and investment plan. Marcus sees the spirit of Hiroo Onoda, second last Japanese Imperial Army soldier to surrender after World War Two - 29 years after the war ended in March 1974 alive in Mr Marles today. Like Hiroo, Mr Marles carries the flame of a world that has ended. In Hiroo Onoda's case it was faith in the Emperor and Imperial Japan's impending victory. In Mr Marles' case, it's in an America that remains the beacon of freedom, democracy and liberal values, source of global stability and anchor of the rules based international system. Both Onoda and Marles are romantics with a streak of obsession in their nature. Hiroo didn't get to determine his nation's defence policy, though. Then it's into the hard numbers of the new plan, including the combination of forensic accounting and clairvoyance needed to understand where the massive new headline Defence budget could have emerged from. The episode ends with mines and the curious case of Pete Hegseth accidentally channeling the spirit of Quentin Tarantino and a 1970s Japanese martial arts movie instead of God.....We're in good hands.

17 apr 2026

1:00:40

Stagione 2

Grumpy Strategist Makers Series - with Beaten Zone's Steve Baxter

One Grumpy Strategist talks with Beaten Zone Ventures boss Steve Baxter. They set out Steve's journey from the Army to business success in the tech world, to now running an outfit all about investing in smart Australian companies making the best defence tech on the planet - for everyone but Australia....Changing that could be as simple - but big - as adopting the Ukrainian military's almost gamified 'Brave1' model - a market-based program that has soldiers using an online shop and tokens earned by destroying particular Russian systems. Delegation, empowerment and speed brings results.

S2 · E6

22 lug 2025

40:27

Grumpy Strategist Makers' Series - the workforce edition with KINEXUS

SAA's Marcus Hellyer talks with Rob Kremer, Kinexus' Director and Defence Sector lead about defence industry prospects and pressures. Rob puts the workforce demands by Defence into a wider economic and societal perspective to set out effective strategies for government and companies. Australian cities have quite different skills concentrations and demographics that flavour the necessary approaches.

S2 · E5

3 lug 2024

25:29

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