Is China really replacing the United States in the Middle East, or has Washington misunderstood what Beijing is trying to achieve? The war with Iran has revived a familiar Washington story: every conflict is another front in the U.S.-China rivalry. But Beijing’s actual strategy in the Middle East is more opportunistic, and more revealing, than the proxy-war frame suggests. China sustains Iran without fully betting on it, builds influence across the Gulf while avoiding the costs of regional security, and turns American intervention into evidence for its own vision of global order. From oil flows and sanctions evasion to Beijing’s limited record as a mediator, the deeper question is not whether China is replacing the United States in the Middle East, but how it continues expanding its position while leaving Washington to carry the risk.

Laur ...