https://join.robinhood.com/jacke30

• Regime markers:

• Sub-14 and falling: risk-on, CPI likely cool/inline.

• 16–18: chop; headline-sensitive.

• Term structure: Backwardation (near-dated VIX futures > far-dated) after CPI is a red flag for near-term drawdowns.

• CDX/IG spreads:

• Tightening after bank earnings: Confirms credit stability. Widening >5–10 bps on hot CPI or weak guidance is risk-off confirmation aligning with equity drawdown.

Rates and factor impacts

• Treasury yields:

• 2-year vs. 10-year:

\text{Slope} = y_{10} - y_{2}

• A bear-steepener (10-year rising faster) on hot CPI pressures growth; a bull-steepener after cool CPI often rotates into cyclicals and financials.

• H ...