Democrats are consistently overperforming 2024 results in special elections this year, suggesting potential trouble for Republicans in upcoming cycles. A significant swing in voter preference has been observed in these state legislative contests. The cause of this overperformance is debated, with two primary theories emerging: public reaction to Trump's policies (especially economic) or the non-participation of "Trumpy swing voters" when Trump is not directly on the ballot.

Judges, including Trump appointees, are actively pushing back against the Trump administration's attempts to undermine the legal system and manipulate voting processes. This resistance demonstrates that at least some "guardrails" within the system are holding.

California Republicans are struggling to effectively resist a temporary gerrymander pushed by Governor Gav ...