CFB Talks Digital Assets

CFB Talks Digital Assets

di CF Benchmarks
Investimenti
Stagione 1
Post-FOMC Debrief, Treasury Companies Under Pressure & CLARITY Stalls Again
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded July 30 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and special guest Tyler Evans, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO Management. Tyler is a career Bitcoiner. He co-founded BTC Inc, the publisher behind Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference, before launching UTXO Management, a Bitcoin-native asset manager focused on asymmetric opportunities across public and private markets. The Fed held for a fifth consecutive meeting with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike, the most unified dissent since 2016. The 30 year yield closed at its highest level since 2007. Q2 GDP came in at 1.5% against expectations near 2.1%. Strategy raised another $544 million of common equity without buying a single Bitcoin. And with the Senate's August recess days away, the CLARITY Act remains stuck behind an unresolved ethics provision. The panel works through what all of it means for Bitcoin, treasury companies, and the broader crypto market. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 04:02 – Grading Warsh's Second Press Conference 08:14 – Three Inflation Shocks & the Case for a Hold Through Year-End 12:52 – The Yen at 40-Year Lows & the Carry Trade Read-Across 14:24 – Is the Fed Losing Control of the Long End? 16:22 – Yield Curve Control: Playing Against the House 20:47 – GDP Misses at 1.5%: Soft Headline, Firmer Internals 23:08 – Best Case, Worst Case: Oil, Tariffs & the AI Capex Wobble 26:07 – The K-Shaped Economy & Why the US Is Insulated 28:42 – Dissent Contagion & Volatility Sequencing Across Assets 31:25 – Saylor on Defense: Cash Reserve, Dilution & STRC Buybacks 34:56 – Rebuilding mNAV: Aligning Equity Accretion With Bitcoin Per Share 37:32 – Stretch at $89: Betting Against Strategy Means Shorting Bitcoin 41:15 – Digital Asset Treasuries: Throwing Out the Baby With the Bathwater? 46:00 – Supply Concentration: Bitcoin vs ETH & Hyperliquid Treasuries 48:54 – Volatility Harvesting & the Coiled Bitcoin Spring 54:21 – CLARITY at the One Yard Line: UTXO's Bearish Base Case 56:58 – Week Ahead: Jobs, ECI, Strategy Earnings & the CLARITY Act
S1 · E68
30 lug 2026
1:01:53
Cross-Asset Volatility at the Lows, the AI CapEx Reckoning & the Latest Text For CLARITY
Could oil be the catalyst that wakes cross-asset volatility? In this CF Benchmarks X Space, recorded on July 23, 2026, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA (@gxselby), is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilkoczuck; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA (@ThomasPerfumo); CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern (@sternpeter9); and special guest Craig Shapiro (@ces921), Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader and author of The Aletheia Narrative. The conversation captures markets at a genuine inflection point. With July options expiry behind us and dealer positioning near cyclical lows, the cross-asset volatility suppressed throughout the year may finally be reawakening. Craig explains his “coiled spring” framework for record-low implied correlations and traces the potential sequence of a volatility shock—from oil to rates, credit and, ultimately, equities. The group also examines why the hyperscalers’ AI capital-expenditure boom is increasingly relying on external financing rather than free cash flow—and whether that shift is beginning to strain some of the world’s most profitable companies. The discussion then turns to the CLARITY Act, including the Senate draft’s ethics provision and the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess, leaving its prospects for passage close to a coin flip. Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction and Team Welcome 01:55 – Meet Craig Shapiro: Two Decades on the Buy Side 04:14 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin, Oil and Rates 05:49 – Implied Correlations and the “Cold Spring” Effect 12:15 – Semiconductors vs. Software: Where the Dispersion Lies 15:38 – Hyperscalers Turn Cash-Flow Negative 21:21 – AI CapEx: Payback, Funding and the Shift From Debt to Equity 29:52 – The Yen Carry Trade and Dollar-Yen at 40-Year Highs 35:45 – Oil, Inflation and the July CPI 38:43 – Crude’s Backwardation and the 2027 Supply Glut 39:59 – Can the Fed Ignore Oil? Warsh’s Next Move and the Balance Sheet 46:50 – The CLARITY Act: Inside the Senate Draft and Its Ethics Provision 56:12 – The Week Ahead: What We’re Watching Listen to the original X Space: https://x.com/i/spaces/1vKpPPAqaVmKE Follow the speakers and organizations on X: CF Benchmarks — @CFBenchmarks https://x.com/CFBenchmarks Gabe Selby, CFA — @gxselby https://x.com/gxselby Thomas Perfumo, CFA — @ThomasPerfumo https://x.com/ThomasPerfumo Peter Stern — @sternpeter9 https://x.com/sternpeter9 Craig Shapiro — @ces921 https://x.com/ces921 Kraken — @krakenfx https://x.com/krakenfx NinjaTrader — @NinjaTrader https://x.com/NinjaTrader
S1 · E67
23 lug 2026
1:01:15
Cooling Inflation, Q2 Earnings & Strategy's Balance Sheet
In this week's CFB Talks Digital Assets live X Space, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, with Blue Coin Capital Founder and CIO Mike Treidl, CFA joining for the second half. A cooler-than-expected June CPI print, a widening reality check on corporate AI budgets, and Strategy's evolving balance-sheet playbook frame a wide-ranging session across macro, markets, and digital asset structure. The team works through the disinflation signal against a still-unresolved energy backdrop, debates whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is approaching a return-on-investment reckoning, and closes with a detailed look at how Strategy is managing its capital stack in a compressed NAV environment. Chapters: 0:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 2:39 – June Retail Sales: A Softening Consumer? 5:02 – Cooling Inflation & the Rates Market Setup 8:53 – Oil, Energy & the Inflation Impulse 12:41 – A Bifurcated Oil World: Diesel, Refiners & Inventory Risk 17:17 – Fed Speak: Waller's Hawkish Turn 20:00 – Warsh's Fed: Agenda-Setting & Constructive Ambiguity 26:49 – Q2 Earnings: Financials Surprise to The Upside 28:58 – Hyperscaler CapEx & the AI ROI Question 32:53 – The AI Spending Reality Check 38:18 – AI's Moat Problem: Low Switching Costs 43:03 – Guest Mike Treidl Joins: AI Moats & Walled Gardens 45:30 – Strategy's New Playbook: ATM Raises Over Bitcoin Sales 48:33 – The USD Reserve Debate: The Right Use of Cash? 59:38 – Week Ahead: FOMC, the Clarity Act & Fund Flows 1:01:57 – Closing Remarks
S1 · E66
16 lug 2026
1:02:53
The Reflexivity Problem: MSTR Stress, ETF Outflows & Why the Bull Case Still Holds
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded June 25, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by a deep bench from across CF Benchmarks and Kraken: CEO Sui Chung, Head of Sales Peter Stern, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo. The team is joined by special guest James Seyffart, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, with a drop-in from Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen. With Bitcoin more than 50% off its all-time high, the panel takes on the question that's all over the headlines: is Strategy breaking the Bitcoin market? The conversation works through Strategy's preferred-share stress, its cash runway, an ETF holder base now underwater for the first time this cycle, the capital rotation into AI and the DRAM trade, and a hotter-than-expected May PCE print, before closing on what they're watching in the coming weeks. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome 03:58 – Is Strategy the Single Biggest Driver of Bitcoin? 06:36 – Dividend Cut or Sell Bitcoin? Pricing the Digital Credit Premium 10:57 – Reflexivity vs Past Cycles: The DAT & ETF Twin Poles 17:16 – ETF Holders Underwater followed by $10B in Outflows 18:30 – What Institutions Are Actually Saying During the Drawdown 23:35 – The Long-Term Bull Case for Crypto 27:36 – Tokenized Equities Overtake Memecoins on Solana 29:00 – The XRP ETF Demand 31:45 – Tracking the 13Fs: Who Currently Owns These ETFs? 33:28 – How Big a Deal Is a Billion-Dollar ETF Launch? 35:38 – Why Index Funds Win Over the Long Term 41:23 – The Elephant in the Room: AI & the DRAM ETF Story 47:44 – Making the Bull Case: Real Incomes & Peak Inflation 50:47 – The Week Ahead: What We're Watching
S1 · E65
25 giu 2026
54:37
Warsh's Fed Debut, Bitcoin Covered-Call Strategies & Stretch's Dislocation
Recorded June 18, 2026. In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, and CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern, with CEO Sui Chung calling in from London. The team also welcomes a special guest: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital and previously head of research at FalconX. The panel grades Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, unpacks the mechanics of synthetic Bitcoin yield from David's new whitepaper on covered call strategies, examines the arrival of covered-call ETFs, and works through the price movements in Strategy's STRETCH preferred. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro, Compliance Note & Team Welcome 03:32 – The FOMC Recap: Rates Held, the Statement Slashed, a Dot Goes Missing 05:46 – Grading Warsh's Debut: The Panel's Report Card 15:17 – Killing the Dot Plot? The Forward Guidance Debate 18:45 – The "Fed Put" & Market Reflexivity 24:11 – Hawkish on Rates or the Balance Sheet? 30:38 – Synthetic Bitcoin Yield: Inside David's latest research piece 34:43 – Bitcoin's Volatility Risk Premium & a Call-Heavy Options Market 37:00 – Covered-Call ETFs Arrive: BlackRock's BITA & Advisor Appetite 42:53 – Muted Basis & Funding: Why Yield-Seekers Turn to Options 44:51 – STRETCH Under Stress: Strategy's Preferred Slips Below Par 47:05 – Reading the Spread: STRETCH vs Peer Yield Products 50:20 – Strategy's Mechanics: USD Reserve, Convert Buyback & the Dividend Standoff 53:28 – The Fast Round: What We're Watching Over the Next Week
S1 · E64
18 giu 2026
1:01:35
Inflation Prints, Hyperliquid's Rise & the SpaceX IPO
In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded June 11, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung, with special guest Ishmael Asad, Research Analyst at Bitwise, for a wide-ranging roundtable across macro, markets, and crypto fundamentals. With long-end yields at multi-year highs, a hot CPI and PPI print, and a new Fed chair stepping in the panel works through the following question: when do a string of "one-off" shocks cement into a structural regime? From there the conversation turns to where capital is actually flowing, contrasting a discounted crypto market, Hyperliquid's fundamentals-driven ascent and entry into the CF Large Cap, and a record-breaking SpaceX IPO drawing in a wave of retail demand. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro, Team Welcome & Guest Introduction 02:06 – The Macro Setup: Multi-Year-High Yields, Hot CPI & PPI 04:27 – A 1970s Redux? Oil, Iran & the Incoming Warsh Fed 06:50 – How Long Can "One-Off" Inflation Shocks Continue? 09:11 – Hot Labor Data, Rate-Hike Odds & a Global Liquidity Squeeze 14:08 – A View From London: Political Shocks & Stagflation Risk 17:10 – When Good News Is Bad News: Labor Market Cracks & Capital Rotation 19:58 – Spotlight on Hyperliquid: Inside CFB's New Valuation Framework 21:25 – HYPE's Economics: ~$1B Revenue, an 83% Margin & a 61x TTM Multiple 24:20 – Why a Scalable 24/7 Model Commands a Premium 26:13 – HYPE's Institutional Bid: ETF Flows & the Coinbase Deal 28:38 – HYPE Joins the CF Large Cap at Number Five 32:29 – Index Inclusion Explained: Why SpaceX Can't Join the S&P 500 Yet 37:14 – The Bear Case: Token Unlocks & Supply Overhang 39:55 – Hyperliquid's Competition & the Perps Landscape 44:33 – The SpaceX IPO: What Are Investors Looking At? 47:54 – Orbital AI: The Interstellar Data Center Narrative 49:40 – Elon's Playbook: Narrative, Multiples & "Populist Liquidity" 53:16 – Rapid Fire: The Week Ahead
S1 · E63
11 giu 2026
59:22
Rate-Hike Fears, AI's Pull on Miners & Crypto's Capitulation
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. Recorded June 4, 2026, the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space finds Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and CF Benchmarks Product Manager Jen Wang, with special guest John Todaro, Managing Director of crypto and AI/HPC equity research at Needham. With Bitcoin near $63,500 after thirteen straight days of ETF outflows, the panel works through what a tightening capital markets backdrop, renewed rate-hike risk, and an unresolved US-Iran oil shock mean for digital assets. The conversation turns to why public Bitcoin miners are racing to become AI infrastructure landlords, how MicroStrategy and the new wave of treasury companies are faring under pressure, and where genuine fundamentals are still separating the winners from the noise. 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:09 – Meet the Guest: Needham's John Todaro 02:48 – Data Check: Bitcoin Near $63.5K as the BVX Spikes 04:23 – Are Fed Rate Hikes Back on the Table? 06:50 – Looking Through the Oil Shock: The Hormuz Premium 08:25 – How Rates Hit Crypto Equities vs. AI Infrastructure 11:37 – Is Bitcoin Mining a Dying Business? 14:11 – Supply Constraints: GPUs, IREN–Nvidia & the Power Bottleneck 18:10 – Public vs. Private Miners: The Great HPC Bifurcation 22:47 – MicroStrategy's First BTC Sale Since 2022 & the Capital Markets Squeeze 27:39 – Why Institutions Want Operating Cash Flows, Not Just Treasuries 30:36 – BitMine's 9.5% Preferred: Does Staking Yield Change the DAT Math? 33:14 – Crypto's Strangest Chart: Hyperliquid, Its ETF & "Fundamentals Not Vibes" 36:29 – The Echo Chamber: Is This Really Capitulation? 38:27 – Bitcoin's Technical Setup & the $59–60K Demand Zone 41:19 – HYPE Joins the CF Capitalization Series (Jen Wang) 42:58 – Reading the Vol Surface: Where the Protection Bid Sits 44:48 – CME BVX Futures Go Live: A Hedging Playbook & the ETN Pipeline 49:58 – Week Ahead: Clarity Act, ERCOT, FOMC & Friday Payrolls 56:16 – Closing Remarks The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell any of the underlying instruments cited including but not limited to cryptoassets, financial instruments or any instruments that reference any index provided by CF Benchmarks Ltd. This communication is not intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. Please contact your financial adviser or professional before making an investment decision. Note: Some of the underlying instruments cited within this material may be restricted to certain customer categories in certain jurisdictions.
S1 · E62
5 giu 2026
55:53
CPI Upends Rate Reckoning, CME BTC Vol. Futures Go Live in June, CLARITY Markup Moves Forward
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded May 14, 2026, the team unpacks a packed week for macro, policy and market structure: a hot CPI print that flips rate-cut expectations on their head; the CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support; Kevin Warsh's narrow confirmation as Fed Chair designate; and CME announces Bitcoin Volatility futures will launch on June 1. Join Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and - for a special deep dive on CME's watershed product launch - CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager Xin Wang. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:53 – Hot CPI Print: 3.8% YoY & The Rate Hike Pivot 03:25 – PPI Confirms The Trend: Sharpest Print Since March 2022 05:25 – Market Impact: S&P at All-Time Highs, 10-Year Tops Year-to-Date 07:00 – CLARITY Act Markup: Today's Pivotal Senate Banking Vote 09:35 – GENIUS Act as the Analog: Why CLARITY Matters 11:57 – Calendar Risk: Beating the Midterm Clock 13:06 – Warsh Confirmed 54-45 — But Powell Stays Until 2028 18:46 – The Real Story: A Divided Fed Board, Not a Puppet Chair 21:00 – Bitcoin at $81K & The 200-Week Moving Average in Focus 24:26 – ETF Bid Support: Stairs Up, Elevator Down? 27:05 – Stagflation Tilt: GDPNow & Decelerating Growth 28:20 – Ether's Relief Rally: Catch-Up Trade or Real Move? 31:03 – Altcoin Leadership: AI & Compute Tokens Take the Lead 34:51 – CME Launches Bitcoin Vol. Futures June 1: a Watershed Moment 36:33 – Inside BVX/BVXS: 30-Day Forward Vol. on CME Bitcoin Options 39:18 – Is BVX the "VIX of Bitcoin"? Similarities & Differences 41:40 – Vol. as Feature, Not Bug: How Practitioners Will Deploy BVX 44:25 – The IBIT Options Effect: Compressing Bitcoin's Vol. Curve 50:06 – The $10T Asset Question: Why Bitcoin Vol. Trends Down 52:54 – Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes & The Trump-Xi Summit 56:26 – Closing Remarks
S1 · E61
15 mag 2026
57:55
Saylor's Pivot, NFP Heat & the Clarity Countdown: Crypto's Cross-Currents
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In the fourth CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded Friday May 8, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA and CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager James Flamant - with special guest Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise. A red-hot NFP print, Michael Saylor's signal that Bitcoin sales aren't off the table, Circle's 20% pop on stablecoin-rewards optimism, and a forensic walk-through of the Kelp DAO ~$300M cross-chain exploit. From AI concentration risk and chipmaker earnings to the Clarity Act markup expected within days, the team unpacks the cross-currents shaping crypto right now. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:21 – NFP Shocker: 115K Print Smashes the 65K Estimate 04:36 – Household vs. Employer Survey: The Revisions Question 06:42 – AI, Crypto & the Decade-Long Productivity Boom 07:31 – Cross-Asset Reaction: NQ Bid, Bitcoin Offered 08:38 – The K-Shaped Equity Market & Mark-to-Market EPS 12:13 – Chipmakers in Focus: Intel's Comeback, AMD's GPU Push 15:19 – AI Concentration Risk: What Happens If Momentum Fades? 17:50 – Bitcoin Decoupling from Tech: Finding the Next Catalyst 20:46 – Crypto Equities & Miners Steal the Show 23:27 – Coinbase Earnings: The Institutional Pivot Accelerates 25:56 – Strategy's $12.5B Loss & Saylor's Capital-Structure Pivot 30:26 – The Signal Heard Round Crypto: Strategy May Sell Bitcoin 35:04 – ETF Flows vs. MicroStrategy: Who's Really Driving Price? 38:09 – Is Strategy Coming In From the Cold? 41:00 – Bitcoin's Volatility as a Feature: Tax-Loss Harvesting 44:30 – The Clarity Act: Where Market Structure Stands Right Now 47:39 – Circle Pops 20%: Stablecoin Rewards in the Spotlight 50:32 – Deep Dive: The Kelp DAO $300M Cross-Chain Exploit 55:28 – Safeguards, Sandboxes & the Innovation Exemption 58:25 – Architecture After Kelp: Hunting the Weakest Link 01:00:11 – Week Ahead: Inflation, the Warsh Vote & the Clarity Markup 01:04:18 – Rethinking On-Chain Risk-Free Rates 01:05:16 – Closing Remarks
S1 · E60
11 mag 2026
1:06:41
Crypto vs. Fractured Fed: Warsh Incoming, Powell Stays, Plus Morgan Stanley and Goldman BTC ETFs
This episode was recorded live via X Spaces — audio quality varies in places. In the third CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 30, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk for a packed session the morning after the most divided FOMC vote in over three decades. The DOJ has dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a historic party-line vote, and Powell has signalled he intends to stay on as a board governor — all in the space of a week. Meanwhile, four dissents at Wednesday's FOMC meeting — the most since October 1992 — have laid bare a fragmented central bank just as its leadership transition begins. The team unpacks what it all means for the rate path, risk assets, and crypto specifically, before turning to the Bitcoin ETF distribution war heating up between IBIT, Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT, and Goldman Sachs' income-focused filing. 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:20 – DOJ Drops the Powell Probe: Clearing the Path for Warsh 05:04 – Powell Digs In: Staying as Governor Until 2028 09:33 – Jackson Hole: The Next Real Fed Event 10:26 – Risk Assets in Earnings Mode, Not Rate-Cut Mode 12:18 – Inside the FOMC Decision: Four Dissents, Most Since 1992 24:25 – Rate Cut Odds Collapse: What It Means for Crypto 29:40 – Why Crypto Is Lagging Equities Right Now 31:54 – Morgan Stanley's MSBT: Can a Late Entrant Compete? 35:02 – The Distribution War: IBIT's Portability Edge 41:58 – Goldman's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF: Boomer Candy Arrives 48:07 – Bitcoin's Gamma Ceiling & the Missing Euphoria Bid 52:20 – Capital Flows: ETFs vs. MicroStrategy 54:46 – The Silver Lining: Warsh as Crypto Bull & Fed Deregulation 56:24 – AI CapEx & the Growth Sustainability Question 57:57 – Week Ahead: Iran, Clarity Act, Michigan Sentiment & Earnings 61:03 – Closing Remarks
S1 · E59
1 mag 2026
1:02:24
1 di 7