Applied Materials export shock: how US curbs hit chip stocks

We are looking at Applied Materials after its shares dropped on fresh guidance that US export curbs will drag down China spending on chipmaking tools in 2026. Washington is tightening rules that stop Chinese firms using affiliates to dodge export controls, and that is cutting into Applied’s China orders, which have already fallen from nearly 40% of revenue to the mid-20% range.

The big picture: China is still the largest buyer of chip equipment, so tighter US rules reshape who gets capex and who loses access to that market.

Winners

Winner Group 1 – Non-US equipment and foundry leaders listed in the US

Reason: Where their tools or capacity are less restricted, they can capture orders that US vendors like Applied cannot ship into China,  ...