Note sull'episodio
Concrete Does Not Renegotiate
Sixty-six years ago on this date, five oil ministers met in Baghdad and decided to stop negotiating separately. Boujie opens on OPEC's founding, the Tehran agreement that proved the point eleven years later, and the problem sitting inside every agreement to exercise restraint — that each participant benefits if the others hold back while it does a little more.
Then a session that split technology in half. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% during the day before closing lower. Brent settled above $105. And the weekend's AI safety debate — Dario Amodei's argument for pacing frontier development, Sam Altman pulling OpenAI's 2026 offering — produced one of the sharpest sector divergences on record.
Cybersecurity rallied hard: CrowdStrike to a record close, Palo Alto and Fortinet close behind. Evercore ISI's Kirk Materne on why security demand may be largely orthogonal to the pace of model advancement, George Kurtz's response to Amodei, the Revolut breach, and Jefferies' Joseph Gallo on why the revenue may not show up until 2027. Semiconductors went the other way, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 5.9%. The gap between software and semis set a one-day record. Bank of America fell on its own investment banking guidance, for reasons that had nothing to do with any of it.
The deep dive: if the builders of AI ask to slow its advance, what spending actually slows with it? Training and inference are not the same activity. Borrowing costs, equipment deliveries and power contracts do not wait for the revenue to catch up. Concrete does not renegotiate.
Nothing here is financial advice.
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