Nifty fell 687 points in two days. This morning GIFT Nifty is up 101. Does 23,000 hold and where does the bounce go?

The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow futures are up 519 pts and Brent crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 the inflation pressure that triggered Thursday's fall is easing.

Today's framework: 23,000 has 6.75 lakh puts written it held yesterday and it's the floor. Weekly VWAP at 23,400 is the first bounce target. Monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for the 28 March expiry. Clients are still massively long index futures some unwinding pressure is likely in the first 30 minutes. Don't chase the gap up. Range today: 22,800 support, 23,381 upside target.

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