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Russia Decoded

di Center for the National Interest

Commenti di notizie Politica

Stagione 1

July 6, 2026: Does Putin Have a Way Out?

With Ukraine's drone campaign striking ever deeper into Russia, Western analysts have rushed to declare a turning point in the war. But is it one? This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast, pointedly titled "War for Peace," reads like a direct rebuttal to the argument that Putin has trapped himself in a geopolitical standoff with no good options left. From the Kremlin's perspective, the escalation options are everywhere: stirring trouble in Cuba, playing the Iran card, and deepening the alliance with China. Europe, meanwhile, is reacting to the threat of Russian escalation with a massive push for remilitarization. If this defense splurge comes at the expense of social spending, could it end up helping Putin, as frustrated European voters revolt against their already unpopular leaders in favor of nationalist (and, as it happens, pro-Putin) parties? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 29, 2026: Putin Takes the Wheel

This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast was especially Putin-centric. Acknowledging fuel shortages, reciting battlefield details by heart, and personally steering the response to Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, the Russian leader appears not just in command but energized by the continuing confrontation with the West. However, recent events -- from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's refining sector to upcoming Duma elections that risk an embarrassing turnout -- have placed mounting strains on the regime that no amount of stagecraft can fully hide. Is Putin genuinely in his element, or performing mastery over problems he can't actually solve? And what does it mean that the strongman is increasingly the system's only visible actor? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 15, 2026: Putin's Magic Wears Off

On Sunday, a devastating missile strike hit Kyiv’s Pechersk Lavra, one of the most sacred sites in the Orthodox world. The attack points to a Kremlin that is now burning through its own foundational myths, chiefly Russia and Ukraine's shared Orthodox heritage. Days earlier, news coverage of Russia Day celebrations highlighted a different problem for the Kremlin: the seeming erosion of the emotional connection between Vladimir Putin and the soldiers he claims to lead. As Russian state media projects confidence and momentum on the battlefield, signs of anxiety are obvious on the homefront. How long can a leader maintain structural control when even his state-orchestrated military "heroes" show little positive emotion for their mission? And what does Moscow's most recent act of escalation reveal about the Kremlin's willingness to prolong the Ukraine war? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

June 8, 2026: Putin Says 'Nyet' to Zelensky's Offer

At this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Vladimir Putin delivered a resounding "nyet" to Volodymyr Zelensky's open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting, even as Ukrainian drones struck mere kilometers from the conference. SPIEF 2026 was equal parts economic summit and political theater, with Putin exuding confidence before an eclectic cast of foreign guests. But why refuse to negotiate now, and what does the refusal reveal about how the Kremlin reads the battlefield, the Russian economy, and the political clock ticking in Washington? Is Putin's "nyet" a door slammed shut, or a calculated bet that time is on Russia's side? And what should we make of the faces Russian television chooses to show, to sideline, or to blur out entirely? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it.

May 25, 2026: The War Goes on and on and on...

On May 22, a drone strike tore through a student dormitory in Starobilsk, leaving dozens of civilians dead or wounded, and Moscow wasted no time casting blame on Kyiv. In "retaliation," the Kremlin launched one of the largest missile and drone barrages on the Ukrainian capital since the war began, complete with an Oreshnik ballistic missile and an unprecedented advisory for foreigners to flee Kyiv. Putin, it seems, is climbing the escalation ladder. And Starobilsk is just one of many grim stories this week: Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises, Russian jets buzzed a British spy plane over the Black Sea, and Ukrainian drones have continued drifting into the Baltic States. Is Putin a master of brinkmanship who has locked himself into a game of chicken with the West, or is he now simply stuck as his "Special Military Operation" enters its 222nd week? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

May 18, 2026: The Boy Who Cried Sarmat

On May 12, Russia test-fired the world's largest missile, the 208-ton Sarmat ICBM. That same week, Ukrainian drones penetrated Moscow's heavily-defended airspace to strike industrial plants and oil refineries. Against the backdrop of this asymmetry, Sergey Karaganov has returned to state television to argue that Russia must restore its credibility by striking a NATO country, and Vesti Nedeli's tone toward the West has sharpened across the board. Has the Kremlin's nuclear bluff simply crossed into boy-who-cried-wolf territory, or does the continued saber-rattling herald potential new schemes to divide Kyiv's Western supporters? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

May 11, 2026: "The Matter Is Coming to an End"

During his lengthy press conference following the May 9 Victory Day parade, Vladimir Putin slipped in an almost offhand remark that "the matter is coming to an end" — a phrase Western outlets quickly seized on as a signal that the war in Ukraine may finally be winding down. But was that really what Putin meant? Read in the context of continued nuclear threats on state television, North Korean troops marching across Red Square, and a new Russian law authorizing military intervention to "rescue" citizens abroad, the remark begins to sound less like capitulation and more like its opposite. Is Putin's comment an admission of exhaustion, or a threat of escalation toward the West? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

May 3, 2026: Murky Signals From Moscow

Last week, Vladimir Putin held a 90-minute phone call with Donald Trump, ostensibly to express concern over a recent assassination attempt and to revive the "spirit of Anchorage." Yet for all the warm headlines, Russian state media's coverage of the call and other top news stories has been unusually murky, with signals pulling in different directions on Iran, Ukraine, and Europe. Did Putin place the call to head off King Charles's potential influence on Trump? Why has Moscow's nuclear rhetoric toward Europe suddenly gone quiet? And why is the buildup to the May 9 Victory Day parade so conspicuously muted? This week's Vesti Nedeli broadcast hints at a Kremlin calibrating. But calibrating toward what? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

April 19, 2026: Turning the Screws on Europe

Is Russian state media prepping its audience for a showdown with Europe? Recent broadcasts have framed European drone factories as legitimate military targets and accused Kyiv of deliberately dragging the continent into conflict with Moscow. Beneath the rhetoric, a quietly advancing Duma law (reportedly drafted inside Putin's own family) would give the Kremlin sweeping new authority to deploy its military abroad. Meanwhile, coverage of Donald Trump has turned sharply hostile, with Moscow mocking the U.S. war effort as a "holy war" led by "crusaders" in the White House. And as Vesti Nedeli continues its glowing coverage of Sino-Russian ties, do these stories signal that the Kremlin is abandoning any pretense of diplomacy with the West? In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

April 12, 2026: Moscow Loses Its Hungarian Trump Card

On Sunday, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a historic victory in Hungary's parliamentary election, ousting current prime minister Viktor Orbán and depriving the Kremlin of its most reliable tool for blocking European assistance to Ukraine. While muted on the election results, Russian state media has continued to hammer at Europe, deriding NATO members as "junk bond" allies and highlighting the Royal Navy’s recent failure to confront a Russian incursion into British territorial waters. This hardline narrative even extends across the Atlantic. The collapse of the Islamabad peace talks has triggered sharp Russian criticism of president Donald Trump’s "madman" negotiation tactics and his megalomaniacal threat to destroy Iranian civilization. In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Have feedback? Email us at RussiaDecoded@cftni.org.

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