As we head through August, it is typical for hurricane season to awaken in the Atlantic Ocean and the models are starting to hint at changes afoot. Elevated Tropical Activity: The Atlantic basin is entering a period of increased tropical activity, consistent with a "backloaded" hurricane season. Conditions are becoming more favorable for development, with warm ocean temperatures and a "La Niña light" influence.

• Primary Threat: A large, ill-defined tropical disturbance has just moved off the coast of Africa and is the main system of concern. It has a high probability of developing into at least a tropical storm, and there's a "good chance we’ll see Hurricane Erin out of this."
• Uncertain Track: The long-term track of the African disturbance is highly uncertain beyond next weekend ...