Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

di Ray Powell & Jim Carouso

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-India Alliance is Achievable? | with Kurt Campbell

What if the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century is the one Washington is actively damaging? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kurt Campbell - former Deputy Secretary of State, President Biden's "Asia czar," a key figure in building the modern Quad, and founder of The Asia Group - to ask whether the U.S. and India can move beyond damage control toward something far more ambitious: a new kind of alliance. Last year, U.S.-India ties hit their lowest point in a quarter century: 50% tariffs over India's Russian oil purchases, a tilt toward Pakistan, and a sharp breakdown of trust. Yet at that very low point, Campbell and Jake Sullivan published "The Case for a U.S. Alliance With India" in Foreign Affairs, warning Washington risked driving India into its adversaries' arms. Drawing on decades of firsthand diplomacy, Campbell offers a candid insider's read on what went wrong and what might still go right. He reveals why Pakistan has out-maneuvered India in navigating the Trump White House, why his own successor's speech in Delhi drew audible gasps from the audience, and why India's celebrated "strategic autonomy" masks a quiet but unmistakable tilt toward the West. In this episode: Why Campbell calls India America's most consequential 21st-century partner, and what "escape velocity" means How he and Sullivan are trying to recast what "alliance" means for a country that will never host U.S. bases How Pakistan adapted to Trump-era diplomacy more effectively than India The surprising story of how India went from reluctant Quad participant to its driving force How India quietly cut its reliance on Russian arms from 80% to under 40% Campbell's new Asia Group report on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and why it's hitting the Indo-Pacific harder than markets expect His warning that the South China Sea, not Taiwan, is the likeliest flashpoint for miscalculation Follow and subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Kurt Campbell at The Asia Group or on LinkedIn. Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or Facebook Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E156

3 lug 2026

53:55

Why Should We Care About Why Journalists are Leaving China? | with Yoko Kubota

The day her BYD rideshare driver told her the dashboard screen was a “national secret” … that's when Wall Street Journal correspondent Yoko Kubota knew China had really changed, and maybe it was time to think about leaving. What does the world lose when fewer foreign journalists are reporting from inside China? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell (35-year military veteran) and Jim Carouso (former senior U.S. diplomat) sit down with Yoko Kubota, who spent eight years in Beijing before leaving China and writing a striking farewell column about a society growing alarmingly suspicious of outsiders. From that small, telling BYD moment, Yoko traces how a tightening espionage law, national-security messaging, and rising nationalism seeped into everyday life. As a Japanese reporter for an American paper, she also describes the anti-Japanese sentiment she and her family encountered, from a parents' school chat group to the phrases her young son began repeating, and how the 2024 attacks on Japanese children in Suzhou and Shenzhen deepened her fears. The conversation also digs into her business beat: Why on-the-ground reporting from inside China still matters and what we lose as it dries up Why China can be both increasingly confident and deeply wary of outside scrutiny How China's EV industry went from a punchline to a global powerhouse, and the "zombie" carmakers left in its wake Why the race for self-driving cars may come down to regulation as much as technology With the press corps thinning – underscored by the recent expulsion of New York Times reporter Vivian Wang – this is an on-the-ground account of an increasingly inaccessible country that still, as Yoko puts it, "won't go away from our lives." Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Yoko Kubota on her page at the Wall Street Journal, on LinkedIn or on X, @Kubota_Yoko Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E155

26 giu 2026

52:23

Why Should We Care How Indo-Pacific Allies Manage a Volatile and Distracted America? | with Marise Payne

Washington is engaging plenty with its Indo-Pacific allies these days … just not always on the things they want, and too often on things they don't. So how do savvy allies steer that relationship when the world's most powerful partner feels less predictable than ever? To find out, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Marise Payne, Australia's former Defence Minister and Foreign Minister. Marise helped launch AUKUS and grow the Quad, and navigated the first Trump administration from both chairs. Now a distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, Payne brings rare insider perspective on how middle powers keep America engaged and what they must build for themselves when it drifts. In a wide-ranging conversation, Payne unpacks: Why "fewer Shangri-Las, more submarines" sets up a false choice, and why showing up still matters The AUKUS reality check: what the shift from the "optimal pathway" means, and the social license challenge facing Canberra Whether Pillar One is now on a "suboptimal pathway," and the case for driving Pillar Two harder How the Quad found its feet again after COVID, and why the New Delhi foreign ministers' meeting matters Reassuring a skeptical ASEAN on nuclear submarines, and the relationship-first diplomacy that made it work China's "do as I say, not as I do" stance on Japan's remilitarization The contrast between leading Defence and Foreign Affairs: "straight lines" versus "grasping at wisps of smoke" It's a practitioner's masterclass in alliance management for an era of strategic uncertainty. Essential listening for anyone tracking US-China competition, AUKUS, national defense, diplomacy and the future of the Indo-Pacific. Follow Marise Payne on Facebook Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E154

19 giu 2026

52:48

Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Is Vietnam quietly drifting into China's orbit, and what does that mean for the United States and the future of Southeast Asia? Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang explains why Hanoi is hedging harder than ever because, as the Vietnamese saying goes, "when the buffaloes and oxen lock horns, the mosquitoes and flies suffer." In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Dr. Giang, Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, to unpack his provocative Carnegie essay, "Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction." Giang argues that Vietnam isn't becoming pro-China, it's hedging in a world where US policy feels unpredictable and China is offering concrete benefits: market access, infrastructure, technology, and political reassurance. The conversation moves from geopolitics to economics: US tariffs, transshipment concerns, Vietnam's export boom, and the risk of being crushed between Washington and Beijing. Giang explains Vietnam's delicate formula: stay close enough to China to manage the relationship, but distant enough to preserve its independence. Ray and Jim also dig into Vietnam's defense strategy and its slow move beyond Russian weapons, then go inside Vietnamese politics under General Secretary Tô Lâm, whose consolidation of power is making foreign policy faster, more personal, and more ambitious. In this episode: Why Vietnam is one of Asia's most important "swing states" US tariffs, transshipment, and Vietnam's export boom China's high-speed rail and technology offer Vietnam's arms diversification beyond Russia Tô Lâm's consolidation of power and the "Blazing Furnace" anti-corruption campaign Vietnam's reaction to the Trump-Xi summit Subscribe for weekly Indo-Pacific analysis from a former US military officer and a former US diplomat who've spent their careers in the region. Follow Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang on LinkedIn or on X, @khacgiang Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E153

12 giu 2026

50:56

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey

Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific. In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.” The conversation covers: Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world today How a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward posture The expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon Strait Whether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarity Philippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the alliance Japan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest Islands The race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architecture Why this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-Pacific Whether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships. 👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn or X, @LisaCurtisDC; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn or X, @RyanHClaffey 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E152

5 giu 2026

51:00

Why Should We Care if Energy Dependence Undermines Southeast Asia’s Quest for Agency? | with Gita Wirjawan

Indonesia’s former trade minister Gita Wirjawan - Stanford visiting scholar and host of the Endgame podcast - joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Southeast Asia and why it is more than just an oil shock. With a significant share of the region’s energy flowing through this narrow chokepoint, the disruption is exposing how vulnerable Southeast Asia really is. Most countries hold only weeks to a couple of months of fuel reserves, and governments like Indonesia - already facing higher-than-expected oil prices - are being forced into difficult tradeoffs between subsidies, social programs, and fiscal stability. Gita explains why countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are particularly exposed, and why switching energy suppliers is far more complicated than it sounds. He also walks through how rising fuel costs ripple quickly into everyday life, especially in archipelagic economies where higher transport costs can drive up food prices and strain household budgets. The conversation goes beyond the immediate crisis to explore deeper structural challenges, including limited fiscal space, reliance on foreign investment, weak regulatory environments, and gaps in technical capacity. Gita argues that these factors make it harder for Southeast Asia to attract the capital needed to strengthen its energy security and long-term resilience. Looking ahead, the discussion turns to whether this crisis could become a turning point. While renewable energy is becoming cheaper and more viable, scaling it across the region will require massive investment and stronger governance. The episode closes by asking whether Southeast Asia can use this moment to assert greater agency, or whether it will remain dependent on forces beyond its control. 👉 Follow Gita Wirjawan on YouTube or on X, @GWirjawan 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E151

29 mag 2026

51:25

Why Should We Care if North Korea's "Little Rocket Man" is Firing Off Missiles Again? | with Ankit Panda

While U.S. attention has been consumed by wars in the Middle East and Europe, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expanding his nuclear arsenal, testing missiles from land and sea, and locking in a new strategic partnership with Russia. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Ankit Panda - Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co‑host of the Asia Geopolitics podcast at The Diplomat, and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces - to unpack what’s really going on in Pyongyang and why it matters far beyond the Korean Peninsula. Ankit explains why North Korea is now America’s “third nuclear adversary,” with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland and the lowest threshold for nuclear use of any nuclear‑armed state on Earth. He traces how Kim’s testing program shifted from cautious development to high‑tempo nuclear war exercises, including tactical nuclear weapons aimed squarely at U.S. and South Korean forces in the region. The conversation digs into the deepening Russia-North Korea military partnership, the implications of the new Choe Hyon‑class destroyer and submarine programs, and the stability‑instability paradox that could make conventional clashes more likely as Pyongyang’s deterrent matures. Ankit also lays out his argument for a U.S. policy shift from denuclearization to “stable coexistence,” explains why Washington already treats Kim as a nuclear peer in practice, and warns of the growing risk that South Korea could break from the Non‑Proliferation Treaty and pursue its own bomb. If you care about U.S. extended deterrence, the future of the Indo‑Pacific security order, North Korea-Russia cooperation, the South Korea nuclear debate, or the rising risk of nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia, this is a conversation you need to hear! 👉 Follow Ankit Panda on LinkedIn or on X, @nktpnd 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E150

22 mag 2026

51:26

Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance. Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel. We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea. If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close. 👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E149

20 mag 2026

50:32

Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann

What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options. Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island. Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order. In this episode, we talk to Eyck about: •⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first. •⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan. •⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch. •⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing. •⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits. If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening. 👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn or X, @eyckfreymann 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E148

15 mag 2026

51:41

Why Should We Care About the Trump–Xi Summit? | with Michael Sobolik

This week President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping - the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. But this isn't 2017 all over again. China is stronger, America's alliances are under strain, the war in Iran has scrambled the chessboard, and the stakes run straight through Taiwan, AI chips, rare earths and critical minerals, and the supply chains the world depends on. Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Caruso are joined by Michael Sobolik, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance. Michael unpacks why Trump may be arriving in Beijing with less leverage than he wanted, why the Iran war isn't the "four-dimensional chess" anti-China strategy some Washington commentators imagine, and what Xi Jinping's "Christmas wish list" could look like - from a public U.S. statement against Taiwanese independence to economic offers that sound like wins but could deepen American dependence on China and spook America’s Indo-Pacific allies. He also warns about the AI race hiding in plain sight: selling advanced chips to China, he argues, can mean "equipping your adversary with a weapon they don't know how to make themselves yet." As for Chinese electric vehicles manufactured on American soil, he calls that "TikTok on wheels" - a potential extinction-level event for U.S. and Japanese automakers and a national security nightmare. Michael flags one summit topic getting too much attention: setting AI rules, which he thinks is likely to yield very little substantial fruit. He also emphasizes another getting too little: political prisoners. Human rights, he argues, isn't just a moral add-on, it's strategic pressure on a Leninist regime that fears its own people, and one of the most overlooked sources of American leverage heading into Beijing. 👉 Follow Michael Sobolik on LinkedIn or X, @michaelsobolik 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

E147

12 mag 2026

54:46

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