The expiration of a US-Iran ceasefire has instantly altered the baseline for global maritime security, threatening a new inflationary shock as energy markets price in renewed proxy conflicts. Meanwhile, a surprise drop in US retail spending signals the American consumer has finally hit a wall, fundamentally shifting the macroeconomic narrative from fighting inflation to preserving growth. • The US-Iran 60-day ceasefire expires, triggering a $30,000 bounty on US troops and raising the risk of supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Pentagon scales down the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises with South Korea, forcing East Asian allies to reassess their reliance on the US security umbrella. • US retail sales unexpectedly fall 0.6% in July, undercutting the Federal Reserve's argument for further near-term rate hikes. • Wall Street braces fo ...