Tuesday is weekly expiry and it opens at the worst possible spot — the lower edge of the range the options chain priced for the full day. GIFT Nifty came in this morning at 23234, down 207 points. Nikkei is falling 1.74 percent. KOSPI is down 2.65 percent. The one positive overnight: Brent crude pulled back from last night's 97 spike to 94.36. That partial softening matters because RBI meets on Wednesday, and every point crude comes down buys them a little more room. But Asia is selling, and India opens near 23175 to 23230.

The chain going into Tuesday's expiry is set up for a clean tug of war. The largest pile of option positions for this week's series sits at 23500 — that is the natural magnet, the price where option sellers make the most. The cap above is 23600, where 9.8 million call positions sit. Below price, 23200 holds the first rea ...